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Optima HIV Modelling

The Optima HIV brand was launched in 2012 but precursors to the model were in development from 2004. Since the Optima launch in 2012, the model has been applied worldwide.

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2023

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries: Findings from Optima HIV modeling analyses across 12 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

National Teams, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

Regional HIV EECA 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Albania

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

ALB HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Armenia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

ARM HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Azerbaijan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

AZE HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Belarus

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

BLR HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Georgia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Kazakhstan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

KAZ HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Kosovo

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

KOS HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Kyrgyzstan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

KGZ HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Moldova

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

MDA HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Serbia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

SRB HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Tajikistan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

TJK HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Uzbekistan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

UZB HIV 2023

 

2020

Improving Allocative Efficiency of the HIV Response in Kenya: A Country-Level Analysis Using the Optima HIV Model

Lukoba, B., Simiyu, J., Chege, W., Kelly, S., Minnery, M., Sithole, L., Shubber, Z. (2020)

Kenya HIV 2020

 

Ending the AIDS epidemic in Cambodia

National Team, UNAIDS, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

EECA English 2020; EECA Russian 2020

 

Improving efficiency of the HIV response in Malawi: Findings from an Optima HIV modelling analysis

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Malawi 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Armenia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Armenia 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Azerbaijan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Azerbaijan 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Belarus

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Belarus 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Georgia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Georgia 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Kazakhstan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Kazakhstan 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Kyrgyzstan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Kyrgyzstan 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Moldova

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Moldova 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Romania

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Romania 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Tajikistan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Tajikistan 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Ukraine

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Ukraine 2020

 

2019

Improving the Allocative Efficiency of the HIV Response Across the Care Cascade in Zimbabwe: Findings from a Modelling Analysis

Taramusi I., Sisimayi C., Benedikt C., Cheikh N., Fraser N., Shubber Z., del Mar Quiroga M., Minnery M., Martin-Hughes R., Kelly S. (2019)

2019 Zimbabwe HIV

 

Improving the allocative efficiency of Kosovo’s HIV response

Burnet Institute, Community Development Fund, National Institute of Public Health, Ministry of Health of Kosovo, Global Fund (2019)

2019 Kosovo HIV

 

2018

Optimizing Investments in the National HIV Response of Mexico

Gutierrez C., Lavadenz F., Macias C., Petravic J., Lavadenz L. (2018)

2018 Mexico HIV

 

Optimizando la Inversión del Plan de Respuesta de Colombia al VIH

Gutierrez C., Stuart R.M., Wilson D.P., Lavadenz F., Reporter I., Kerr C. (2018)

2018 Colombia HIV

 

2017

Allocating HIV Funding Efficiently in Myanmar: Analyses Using the Optima HIV Model

Optima Consortium for Decision Science, the University of Bern, the University of New South Wales, and the Burnet Institute, UNAIDS, Myanmar Ministry of Health and Sports, the World Bank Group (2017)

2017 Myanmar HIV

 

Allocative Efficiency Analysis (HIV) 2015-2030 for Karnataka & Punjab — India

Public Health Foundation of India in collaboration with National AIDS Control Organisation, National Institute of Medical Statistics, and Burnet Institute (2017)

2017 India HIV

 

Optimización de las inversiones para la respuesta al VIH en Perú

Prieto L., Montañez V., Petravic J., Reporter I., Medici A. (2017)

2017 Peru HIV

 

Optimizing Investments for a Sustainable and Efficient HIV Response in Togo

University College London, Burnet Institute, University of New South Wales (2017)

2017 Togo HIV

 

Optimización de la inversión en VIH/SIDA en Argentina

Calvo N., Lavadenz F., Reporter I., Petravic J., Pantanali C., Lavadenz, C. (2017)

2017 Argentina HIV

 

Ending AIDS in Johannesburg: An analysis of the status and scale-up towards HIV treatment and prevention targets.

Burnet Institute, Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2016)

The World Bank Group for the Gauteng Province Department of Health and South African Department of Health

 

Optimizing Investments for a Sustainable and Efficient HIV Response in Senegal: Findings from an HIV Allocative Efficiency Study

Government of Senegal, UNAIDS, the Optima Consortium for Decision Science, the University of Bern, the University of New South Wales, the Kirby Institute, and the Burnet Institute (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

HIV Investment in Cote d’Ivoire: Optimized allocation of HIV resources for a sustainable and efficient HIV response

University of Bern, University of New South Wales, Burnet Institute, and The World Bank (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing investments in Bulgaria’s HIV response

University College London, Burnet Institute, University of New South Wales (2016)

The World Bank Group, Global Fund, UINAIDS, and UNDP for the Government of Bulgaria

 

Optimizing investments in Belarus for the National HIV Response

Atroshchanka O., Fisenka A., Ilyenkova V., Đurić P., Gray R., Benedikt C., Masaki E., Obst M., Kokiashvili D., Maxim C., Sakvarelidze G., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Hamelmann C., Kerr C., Stuart R., Wilson D.P., Görgens M., Nguyen S.N., Wilson D. (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing Investments in the Kyrgyz Republic’s HIV Response

Maitieva V., Ianbukhtina L., Mambetov T., Bashmakova L., Sarybaeva M., Đurić P., Shattock A., Benedikt C., Masaki E., Obst M., Soorombaeva D., Abarbekova A., Kazizova M., Irbe S., Kokiashvili D., Mdivani N., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Scutelniciuc O., Hamelmann C., Macauley J., Stuart R., Kerr C., Wilson D.P., Patel R., Nguyen S.N., Görgens M. (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Value for money in Ukraine’s HIV response: strategic investment and improved efficiency

Kuzin I., Sharapka K., Gvozdeva E., Kerr C., Stuart R., Masaki E., Goroshko A., Benedikt C., Nizova N., Wilson D.P., Boyko J., Belli P., Görgens M., Wilson D., Manova M., Hailevich R., Tyszko J., Đurić P., Hamelmann c., Zhang S., Sakvarelidze G., Görgens M., Belli P., Doroshenko O., Fraser N., Garcia R.R., Shubber Z. (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing Investments in Georgia’s HIV Response

Asatiani A., Baliashvili D., Khonelidze I., Ruadze E., Stvilia K., Tsereteli M., Chokoshvili O., Haghparast-Bidgoli H., Grobicki L., Panovska-Griffiths J., Skordis-Worrall J., Benedikt C., Kerr C., Stuart R., Wilson D.P., Görgens M., Masaki E., Hailevic R., Manova M., Kokiashvili D., Loncar D., Sakanyan T., Zhang S., Đurić P., Hamelmann C. (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing HIV Investments in Armenia

Grigoryan S., Grigoryan T., Hovhannisyan R., Papoyan A., Kelly S., Benedikt C., Cuadros D.F., Masaki E., Obst M., Grishechkina V., Kokiashvili D., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Đurić P., Hamelmann C., Kerr C., Stuart R., Wilson D.P., Nguyen S.N., Görgens M., Heard W. (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing investments in Kazakhstan’s HIV response

Baiserkin B.S., Bokazhanova A., Ganina L.U., Kalinich N.F., Kazimova A.A., Petrenko I.I., Yelizarieva A.V., Đurić P., Shattock A., Benedikt C., Masaki E., Obst M., Farcy N., Kokiashvili D., Vinichenko T., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Scutelniciuc O., Hamelmann C., Kerr C., Stuart R.M., Wilson D.P., Nguyen S.N., Görgens M., Wilson D., Patel R., Bortman M., Zhumadil B. (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Science addressing drugs and HIV: State of the Art: 2nd Scientific Statement

Des Jarlais D., Bastos F., Benedikt C., Feelemyer J., Hayashi K., Kelly S., Kerr T., Lim H., Loh J., Milloy M.J.S., Shoptaw S., Williams A., Wilson D.P., Wilson D., Beg M., Hariga F. (2016)

2Nd Scientific Statement March 2016

 

Allocative and implementation efficiency in HIV prevention and treatment for people who inject drugs

Wilson D., Benedikt C., Kelly S., Wilson D.P. (2016)

Efficiency In HIV Harm Reduction For PWID

 

Optimizing Investments in the National HIV Responses of Indonesia and Thailand: a Report for World Health Organization South-east Asia Regional Office

Grantham K., Reagan D., Law M., Wilson D.P. (2016)

Who Sear Indonesia Thailand Report

 

2015

A Case Study on How Allocative Efficiency Analysis Supported by Mathematical Modelling Changed HIV Investment in Sudan. From Analysis to Action

The World Bank Group (2015)

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing Investments in Moldova’s HIV Response

University of New South Wales, Burnet Institute (2015)

The World Bank Group, Global Fund, UNAIDS, and UNDP for the Government of Moldova

 

Optimizing investments in Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s HIV response

University College London, Burnet Institute, University of New South Wales (2015)

The World Bank Group for the Government of FYR Macedonia [PDF]

 

Modelling an Optimised Investment Approach for Uzbekistan: sustainable financing of National HIV responses

Wilson D.P., Kerr C., Đurić P., Hamelmann C. (2015)

Uzbekistan Report

 

Zambia’s HIV Response: Prioritised and strategic allocation of HIV resources for impact and sustainability (findings from the HIV allocative efficiency study)

Masaki E., Fraser N., Haacker M., Obst M., Wootton R., Sunkutu R., Gorgens M., Gray R.T., Shattock A., Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P. (2015)

The World Bank Group and UNSW Australia for the Government of Zambia

 

Investing for Results: How Asia Pacific countries can invest for ending AIDS. High-level panel for AIDS Funding Landscape in Asia and the Pacific

Shattock A., Gray R., Donald B., Stuart R., Lief E., Zhang L., Wilson D. (2015)

Investing For Results 2015

 

2014

Sudan’s HIV response: Value for money in a low-level HIV epidemic; Findings from the HIV allocative efficiency study

Fraser N., Benedikt C., Obst M., Masaki E., Gorgens M., Stuart R., Shattock A., Gray R.T., Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P. (2014)

The World Bank Group and UNSW Australia

 

Optimizing allocation of resources for HIV/AIDS responses: presented to the United Nations General Assembly

Wilson D.P., Stuart R., Shattock A., Gray R., Kelly S. (New York, September 2014)

JC2686 Wad2014report En

 

HIV Mathematical Modelling to Support Swaziland's Development of its HIV Investment Case

Kelly S., Shattock A., Kerr C.C., Gama T., Nhlabatsi N., Zagatti G., Harimurti P., Wilson D.P., Gorgens M. (2014)

Swaziland Report

 

HIV resource needs, availabilities and gaps across ASEAN countries

Wilson D.P., Shattock A., Gray R. (Hanoi, Vietnam; September 2014)

ASEAN, 5 Sept 2014

 

Niger’s HIV response: Targeted investments for a health future. Findings from the HIV allocative efficiency and financial sustainability study

Fraser N., Cheikh N., Haacker M., Masaki E., Karamoko D., Gorgens M., Frescura L., Konan C., Kerr C.C., Gray R.T., Shattock A., Wilson D.P. (2014)

The World Bank Group

 

Ukraine HIV Program Efficiency Study: Can Ukraine improve value for money in HIV service delivery?

Wilson D.P., Razali K., Henderson K., Maher L., Ellard J., Shattock A., Semini I., Masaki E., Gorgens M. (2014)

Ukraine HIV Program Efficiency Report Final With Cover

 

HIV Investment in Armenia: Analysis & Recommendations

Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P. (2014)

Armenia Report 2014

 

Modelling an optimized investment approach for Tajikistan

Duric P., Hammelmann C., Wilson D.P., Kerr C.C. (2014)

Tajikistan Report RuTajikistan Report En

 

Evaluation of a Decade of DFID and World Bank Supported HIV and AIDS Programmes in Vietnam from 2003 to 2012

Zhang L., Maher L., Pham D.Q., Higgs P., Anh N.D., Duc B.H. Shattock A., Hoa D.M., Wilson D.P. (2014)

The World Bank Group

 

HIV Resource Needs, Efficient Allocation and Resource Mobilization for the Republic of Belarus

Wilson D.P., Yakusik A., Kerr C.C., Avila C. (2013)

Belarus Report 2013

 

2012

Assessment of the allocation of HIV funding in Indonesia.

Gray R.T., Reyes J., Nadjib M., Harimurti P., Wilson D.P. (2012)

The World Bank Group

 

2011

The Papua New Guinea HIV Model: explaining the past, describing the present, and forecasting the future of the HIV epidemic in PNG

Gray R.T., Murray J.M., Wilson D.P., Vallely A., Kaldor J. (2011)

PNG HIV Model ReportsPNG HIV Modeling Report Technical AppendixPNG HIV Model Software Manual

 

Evaluation of the epidemiological impact of harm reduction programs on HIV in Vietnam

Wilson D.P., Loo V., Zhang L., Thein H.H., Gray R., Kwon A. (2011)

Vietnam WB 2011

 

The HIV in Indonesia Model (HIM)

Wilson D.P., Riono P., Kerr C., Kwon A., Zhang L., Kaldor J., Sutrisna A., Farid M.N., Hadi N. (2011)

HIV In Indonesia (HIM) ReportHIM Software Manual

 

Epidemiology and modeling report on HIV/AIDS in the Philippines

Farr A.C., Wilson D.P. (2010)

Philippines Report

 

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia (prepared for AusAID)

Wilson D.P., Gray R., Heymer K.J., Hoare A., Kwon J., Thein H.H., Worth H., Kaldor J. (2009)

SEA HIV Epidemic 2009

 

Mathematical models to investigate recent trends in HIV notifications among men who have sex with men in Australia

Wilson D.P., Hoare A., Regan D.G., Wand H., Law M.G. (2008)

Final+NCHECR+Modelling+Report

Findings from Optima HIV applications and studies have been used to inform: the United Nations General Assembly, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, national HIV/AIDS Strategic Plans, national Global Fund Concept Note applications, and country reports.

Optima HIV results can be used to improve country and health policy decision-making by informing domestic and donor public health funding allocations towards better achieving HIV targets.

The Optima HIV software was conceptualised and developed by the Optima Consortium for Decision Science with technical input from the World Bank, and is owned by Optima Consortium for Decision Science, Ltd. Optima HIV can be reached through www.hiv.optimamodel.com and is free and open source, with the code available for download on GitHub.

Optima HIV helps to:

  • Identify HIV programs to be prioritized with available funding
  • Determine resources required to reach HIV coverage targets and epidemiological objectives
  • Establish the most cost-effective mix of HIV interventions to respond to a country’s HIV epidemic
  • Reveal the investment allocation and coverage allocation for minimizing HIV incidence, HIV-related mortality, or both
  • Calculate future treatment, care, and support costs for people affected by HIV or AIDS
  • Estimate the number of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths averted through existing or optimized investment. 

 

To access the Optima HIV open source model, click here. Access the user guide and training materials here.

The Optima HIV brand was launched in 2012 but precursors to the model were in development from 2004. Since the Optima launch in 2012, the model has been applied worldwide.

2004 – ongoing

The primary Consortium partners for developing and applying the Optima suite of tools are University College London, University of Bern, and the University of New South Wales.

Optima tools have been developed and applied in close partnership and with funding from global health agencies including the: World Bank, Global Fund, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. Optima also receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

The Optima HIV tool is part of the HIV Modelling Consortium, a group supporting evidence-informed decision making by facilitating the application of multiple mathematical models in sub-Saharan Africa.

HIV health states compartments and transmission-related interactions across the care cascade represented in Optima HIV

Risk-based population mixing patterns represented in Optima HIV

Associate Professor Nick Scott

Please contact Associate Professor Nick Scott for more information about this project.

EMAIL CALL

Funding
Partners

  • World Bank
  • Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
  • U.S. Centers for Disease Control
  • Australian National Health and Medical Research Council

Partners +
Collaborators

  • University College London
  • University of Bern
  • University of New South Wales