Our dynamic, interdisciplinary team uses modelling to guide effective and cost-effective responses infectious diseases and global health problems. We are at the forefront of modelling across numerous thematic areas, including:
- COVID-19
- Hepatitis C
- Hepatitis B
- HIV
- Tuberculosis
- Malaria
- Nutrition
- Maternal, Newborn and Child health
- Adolescent Health
- Health systems and service delivery platforms
Our methodological approaches are adapted to the data available and key policy questions being addressed, and includes a variety of:
- Deterministic and stochastic models
- Population-level and agent-based models
- Compartmental and network models
- Costing studies
- Cost-effectiveness analyses
- Cost-benefit and return on investment analyses
- Resource optimisation analyses
- Analyses of large datasets using statistical and machine learning approaches
Discover more about Burnet's modelling work in Episode 7 of our How Science Matters podcast below.

Associate Professor Nick Scott
Dr Nick Scott, BSc (hons), PhD (Mathematics) is the Head of Modelling & Biostatistics at the Burnet Institute, an Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at Monash University, and an NHMRC Emerging Leader Fellow. He leads a team of modellers who work across a number of infectious diseases and public health problems.
Working
Group
Meet the working group. Together, we are translating research into better health, for all.
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Optima Publications
The risks and benefits of providing HIV services during the COVID-19 pandemic
Stover, J., Kelly, S.L., Mudimu, E., Green, D., Smith, T., Taramusi, I., Bansi-Mantharu, L., Martin-Hughes, R., Phillips, A.N., Bershteyn, A. (2021)
PLoS One
Costs of providing HIV care and optimal allocation of HIV resources in Guyana
Suraratdecha, C., Stuart, R.M., Edwards, M., Moore, R., Liu, N., Wilson, D.P., Albalak, R. (2020)
PLoS One
Determining the optimal strategy for reopening schools, the impact of test and trace interventions, and the risk of occurrence of a second COVID-19 epidemic wave in the UK: a modelling study
Panovska-Griffiths, J., Kerr, C.C., Stuart, R.M., Mistry, D., Klein, D.J., Viner, R.M., Bonell, C. (2020)
Lancet Child & Adolescent Health
Potential effects of disruption to HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa caused by COVID-19: results from multiple models
Jewell, B., Mudimu, E., Stover, J. et al. for the HIV Modelling consortium (2020) [Appendix]
Lancet HIV
Sharing the costs of structural interventions: What can models tell us?
Stuart,R.M. and Wilson D.P. (2020)
International Journal of Drug Policy, 102702
The influence of constraints on the efficient allocation of resources for HIV prevention
Stuart, R.M., Kelly, S.L., Kerr, C.C., Martin-Hughes R., and Wilson, D.P. (2019)
AIDS, 33:1949–1956
Optimal allocation of HIV resources among geographical regions
Kedziora, D.J., Stuart, R.M., Pearson, J., Latypov, A., Dierst-Davies, R., Duda, M., Avaliani, N., Wilson, D.P. and Kerr, C.C. (2019)
BMC Public Health, 19:1509
Simulating the entire natural course of HIV infection by extending the basic viral dynamics equations to include declining viral clearance
Petravic, J., Wilson, D.P. (2019)
Pathogens and Disease, Volume 77, Issue 4
What is the impact of a 20% funding cut in international HIV aid from the United States?
ten Brink, D., Martin-Hughes, R., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D.P. (2019)
AIDS, 33(8):1408-1408
Applying the 'no-one worse off' criterion to design Pareto efficient HIV responses in Sudan and Togo
Stuart, R.M., Haghparast-Bidgoli, H., Panovska-Griffiths, J., Grobicki, L., Skordis, J., Kerr, C.C., Kedziora, D.J., Martin-Hughes, R., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D.P. (2019)
AIDS, 33(7):1247-1252
A tale of two countries: Progress towards UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in Botswana and Australia
Marukutira, T., Stoové, M., Lockman, S., Mills, L.A., Gaolathe, T., Lebelonyane, R., Jarvis, J.N., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D.P., Luchters, S., Crowe, S.M., Hellard, M. (2018)
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25190
Achieving 90-90-90 Human Immunodeficiency (HIV) targets will not be enough to achieve the HIV incidence reduction target in Australia
Scott, N., Stoové, M., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D.P., Hellard, M.E. (2018)
Clin Infect Dis, 66(7):1019-1023
Optima attempts to objectively and pragmatically assist countries meet their targets most efficiently and effectively
Wilson, D.P., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.J. (2018)
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25190
Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Two Hospitals of Thailand
Suraratdecha, C., Stuart, R., Manopaiboon, C., Green, D., Lertpiriyasuwat, C., Wilson, D., Pavaputanon, P., Visavakum, P., Monkongdee, P., Khawcharoenporn, T., Tharee, P., Kittinunvorakoon, C., Martin, M. (2018)
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25129
Optima Nutrition: an allocative efficiency tool to reduce childhood stunting by better targeting of nutrition-related interventions
Pearson, R., Killedar, M., Petravic, J., Kakietek, J.J., Scott, N., Grantham, K.L., Stuart, R.M., Kedziora, D.J., Kerr, C., Skordis-Worrall, J., Shekar, M., Wilson, D.P. (2018)
BMC Public Health, 18(1):384
How should HIV resources be allocated? Lessons learnt from applying Optima HIV in 23 countries
Stuart, R.M., Grobicki, L., Haghparast-Bidgoli, H., Skordis-Worrall, J., Keiser, O., Estill, J., Baranczuk, Z., Panovska-Griffiths, J., Kelly, S.L., Reporter, I., Kedziora, D.J., Shattock, A.J., Petravic, J., Hussain, S.A., Grantham, K.L., Gray, R.T., Yap, X.F., Martin-Hughes, R., Benedikt, C.J., Fraser-Hurt, N., Masaki, E., Wilson, D.J., Gorgens, M., Mziray, E., Cheikh, N., Shubber, Z., Kerr, C.C., Wilson, D.P. (2018)
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25097
The global Optima HIV allocative efficiency model: targeting resources in efforts to end AIDS
Kelly, S.L., Martin-Hughes, R., Stuart, R.M., Yap, X.F., Kedziora, D.J., Grantham, K.L., Hussain, S.A., Reporter, I., Shattock, A.J., Grobicki, L., Haghparast-Bidgoli, H., Skordis-Worrall, J., Baranczuk, Z., Keiser, O., Estill, J., Petravic, J., Gray, R.T., Benedikt, C.J., Fraser, N., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D., Kerr, C.C., Wilson, D.P. (2018)
Lancet HIV, 5(4):e190-e198
Optimization by Adaptive Stochastic Descent
Kerr, C.C., Dura-Bernal, S., Smolinski, T.G., Chadderdon, G.L., Wilson, D.P. (2018)
PLoS One13(3), e0192944
The City of Johannesburg can end AIDS by 2030: modeling the impact of achieving the fast-track targets and what it will take to get there
Stuart, R.M., Fraser-Hurt, N., Kerr, C.C., Mabusela, E., Madi, V., Mkhwanazi, F. Pillay, Y. Barron, P., Muzah, B., Matsebula, T., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.P. (2018).
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25068
Getting it right when budgets are tight: using optimal expansion pathways to prioritize responses to concentrated and mixed HIV epidemics
Stuart, R.M., Kerr, C.C., Haghparast-Bidgoli, H., Estill, J., Grobicki, L., Baranczuk, Z., Prieto, L., Montañez, V., Reporter, I., Gray, R.T., Skordis-Worrall, J., Keiser, O., Cheikh, N., Boonto, K., Osornprasop, S., Lavadenz, F., Benedikt, C.J., Martin-Hughes, R., Hussain, A., Kelly, S.L., Kedziora, D.J., Wilson, D.P. (2017)
PLoS One, 12(10):e0185077
Maximizing the impact of malaria funding through allocative efficiency: using the right interventions in the right locations
Scott, N., Hussain, S.A., Martin-Hughes, R., Fowkes, F.J.I., Kerr, C.C., Pearson, R., Kedziora, D.J., Killedar, M., Stuart, R.M., Wilson, D.P. (2017)
Malaria Journal, 16:368
Acute HIV infection detection and immediate treatment estimated to reduce transmission by 89% among men who have sex with men in Bangkok
Kroon, E.D.M.B., Phanuphak, N., Shattock, A.J., Fletcher, J.L.K., Pinyakorn, S., Chomchey, N., Akapirat, S., de Souza, M.S., Robb, M.L., Kim, J.H.,van Griensven, F. , Ananworanich, J., Wilson, D.P. on behalf of the RV254/SEARCH 010 Study Group. (2017)
J Int AIDS Society, 20:21708
Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious HIV targets by combining improved ART procurement mechanisms with allocative and implementation efficiencies
Shattock, A.J., Benedikt, C., Bokazhanova, A., Đurić, P., Petrenko, I., Ganina, L., Kelly, S.L., Stuart, R.M., Kerr, C.C., Vinichenko, T., Zhang, S., Hamelmann, C., Manova, M., Masaki, E., Wilson, D.P., Gray, R.T. (2016)
PLoS One, 12(2)
Allocative and implementation efficiency in HIV prevention and treatment for people who inject drugs
Benedikt, C., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D., Wilson, D.P. on behalf of the Optima Consortium. (2016)
Int J Drug Policy, 38:73-80
GBD 2015 and HIV estimates from the Optima model
Kelly, S., Wilson, D.P. (2016)
The Lancet HIV, 3(12):e558
Optimizing HIV/AIDS resources in Armenia: increasing ART investment and examining HIV programs for seasonal migrant laborers.
Kelly, S.L., Shattock, A.J., Kerr, C.C., Stuart, R.M., Papoyan, A., Grigoryan, T., Hovhannisyan, R., Grigoryan, S., Benedikt, C., Wilson, D.P. (2016).
J Int AIDS Society, 19:20772
A no-brainer for ending AIDS: the case for a harm reduction decade
Cook, C., Lines, R., Wilson, D.P. (2016)
J Int AIDS Society, 19:21129
Local responses to local epidemics for national impact need advanced spatially-explicit tools
Grantham, K.L., Kerr, C.C., Wilson, D.P. (2016)
AIDS, 30(9):1481-1482
In the interests of time: improving HIV allocative efficiency modeling via optimal time-varying allocations
Shattock, A.J., Kerr, C.C., Stuart, R.M., Masaki, E., Fraser, N., Benedikt, C., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.P., Gray, R.T. (2016)
J Int AIDS Society, 19:20627
Projecting the epidemiological effect, cost-effectiveness and transmission of HIV drug resistance in Vietnam associated with viral load monitoring strategies
Pham, Q.D., Wilson, D.P., Nguyen, T.V., Do, N.T., Truong, L.X., Nguyen, L.T., Zhang, L. (2016)
J Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, 71(5):1367-1379
The funding landscape for HIV in Asia and the Pacific
Stuart, R.M., Lief, E., Donald, B., Wilson, D., Wilson, D.P. (2015)
J Int AIDS Society, 18:20004
Sustainable HIV Treatment in Africa through Viral Load-Informed Differentiated Care
Working Group on Modelling of ART Monitoring Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa (Phillips, A., Shroufi, A., Vojnov, L., Cohn, J., Roberts, T., Ellman, T., Bonner, K., Rousseau, C., Garnett, G., Cambiano, V., Nakagawa, F., Ford, D., Bansi-Matharu, L., Miners, A., Lundgren, J., Eaton, J., Parkes-Rotanshi, R., Katz, Z., Maman, D., Ford, N., Vitoria, M., Doherty, M., Dowdy, D., Nichols, B., Murtagh, M., Wareham, M., Palamountain, K., Musanhu, C.C., Stevens, W., Katzenstein, D., Ciaranello, A., Barnabas, R., Braithwaite, S., Bendavid, E., Nathoo, K.J., van de Vijver, D., Wilson, D., Holmes, C., Bershteyn, A., Walker, S., Raizes, E., Jani, I., Nelson, L., Peeling, R., Terris-Prestholt, F., Murungu, J., Mutasa-Apollo, T., Hallett, T., Revill, P.). (2015)
Nature, 7580(528):S68-S76
Can we know in advance whether models will get it right?
Wilson, D.P., Kerr, C.C. (2015)
The Lancet Global Health, 3(10):e577-578
Re-orienting the HIV response in Niger towards sex work interventions: from better evidence to targeted and expanded practice
Fraser, N., Kerr, C.C., Harouna, Z., Alhousseini, Z., Cheikh, N., Gray, R., Shattock, A., Wilson, D.P., Haacker, M., Shubber, Z., Masaki, E., Karamoko, D., Görgens, M. (2015)
JAIDS, 68:S213–S220
Scaling up HIV treatment for MSM in Bangkok: what does it take? -- a modelling and costing study
Zhang, L., Phanuphak, N., Henderson, K., Nonenoy, S., Srikaew, S., Shattock, A., Kerr, C.C., Omune, B., van Griensven, F., Osornprasop, S., Oelrichs, R., Ananworanich, J., Wilson, D.P. (2015)
Lancet HIV, 2:e200–07
Optima: a model for HIV epidemic analysis, program prioritization, and resource optimization
Kerr, C.C., Stuart, R.M., Gray, R.T., Shattock, A., Fraser-Hurt, N., Benedikt, C., Haacker, M., Berdnikov, M., Mahmood, A.M., Jaber, S.A., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.P. (2015)
JAIDS, 69(3): 365-376
The cost-effectiveness of harm reduction
Wilson, D.P., Donald, B., Shattock, A.J., Wilson, D., Fraser-Hurt, N. (2015)
Int J Drug Policy, 26(S1):S5-S11
Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models
Eaton, J.W., Menzies, N.A., Stover, J., Cambiano, V., Chindelevitch, L., Cori, A., Hontelez, J.A.C., Humair, S., Kerr, C.C., Klein, D.J., Mishra, S., Mitchell, K.M., Nichols, B.E., Vickerman, P., Bärnighausen, T., Bershteyn, A., Bloom, D.E., Boily, M-C., Chang, S.T., Cohen, T., Dodd, P.J., Fraser, C., Gopalappa, C., Lundgren, J., Martin, N.K., Mountain, E., Pham, Q.D., Pickles, M., Phillips, A., Platt, L., Pretorius, C., Prudden, H.J., Salomon, J.A., van de Vijver, D.A.M.C., Wagner, B.G., White, R.G., Wilson, D.P., Zhang, L., Bandford, J., Meyer-Rath, G., Remme, M., Revill, P., Sangrujee, N., Terris-Prestholt, F., Doherty, M., Easterbrook, P., Hirnschall, G., Hallett, T.B. (2014) [Appendix]
The Lancet Global Health 2:e23-34
Cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy expansion strategies in Vietnam
Tran, D.A., Wilson, D.P., Zhang, L., Shakeshaft, A., Ngo, A.D., Doran, C. (2014)
AIDS Patient Care and STDs, Jul;28(7):365-71
Reply to PrEP cost-effectiveness
Schneider, K., Gray, R.T., Wilson, D.P. (2014)
Clinical Infectious Diseases, 59 (1):141
Spending of HIV resources in Asia and Eastern Europe: systematic review reveals the need to shift funding allocations towards priority populations
Craig, A.P., Thein, H.H., Zhang, L., Gray, R.T., Henderson, K., Wilson, D., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.P. (2014)
Journal of the International AIDS Society, 17:18822
Predicting the population impact of increased HIV testing and treatment in Australia
Jansson, J., Kerr, C.C., Wilson, D.P. (2014)
Sexual Health, 11:146–154
How should HIV programmes respond to evidence for the benefits of earlier treatment initiation? A combined analysis of twelve mathematical models
Eaton, J.W., Menzies, N.A., Stover, J., Cambiano, V., Chindelevitch, L., Cori, A., Hontelez, J.A.C., Humair, S., Kerr, C.C., Klein, D.J., Mishra, S., Mitchell, K.M., Nichols, B.E., Vickerman, P., Bakker, R., Bärnighausen, T., Bershteyn, A., Bloom, D.E., Boily M.-C., Chang S.T., Cohen T., Dodd, P.J., Fraser, C., Gopalappa, C., Lundgren, J., Martin N.K., Mikkelsen E., Mountain E., Pham Q.D., Pickles M., Phillips A., Platt L., Pretorius C., Prudden, H.J., Salomon, J.A., van de Vijver, D.A.M.C., de Vlas, S.J., Wagner, B.G., White, R.G., Wilson, D.P., Zhang, L., Blandford, J., Meyer-Rath, G., Remme, M., Revill, P., Sangrujee, N., Terris-Prestholt, F., Doherty, M., Shaffer, N., Easterbrook, P.J., Hirnschall, G., Hallett T.B. (2013)
Lancet Global Health, 2:e23-34
A cost-effectiveness analysis of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis for men who have sex with men in Australia
Schneider, K., Gray, R.T., Wilson, D.P. (2013)
Clinical Infectious Diseases, 58(7):1027-1034
HIV service capacity: identifying current and future areas of clinical shortage
Mallitt, K.A., Jansson, J., Wand, H., Crooks, L., Wilson, D.P. (2013)
Sexual Health, 11(1):17-23
HIV antiretroviral prophylaxis for injecting drug users
Craig, A.P., Gray, R., Jansson, J., Wilson, D.P. (2013)
The Lancet, 382:854-855
The potential cost and benefits of raltegravir in simplified second-line therapy among HIV infected patients in Nigeria and South Africa
Schneider, K., Nwizu, C., Kaplan, R., Anderson, J., Wilson, D.P., Emery, S., Cooper, D.A., Boyd, M.A. (2012)
PLoS One, 8(2):e54435
Understanding the modes of transmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning
Case, K.K., Ghys, P.D., Gouws, E., Eaton, J.W., Borquez, A., Stover, J., Cuchi, P., Abu-Raddad, L.J., Garnett, G.P., Hallett, T.B. on behalf of the HIV Modelling Consortium (Atun, R., Auvert, B., Bacaer, N., Barnighausen, T., Bershteyn, A., Boily, M.-C., Delva, W., Eckhoff, P., Foss, A., Heijne, J., Klein, D.J., Low, N., Lowndes, C.M., Mishra, S., Pretorius, C., Welte, A., White, P., Williams, B., Wilson, D., Wilson, D.P., Zaba, B., Prudden H.). (2012)
Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 90:831-838
Demand for HIV clinical services is increasing in Australia but supply is decreasing
Mallitt, K.A., Jansson, J., Crooks, L., McGuigan, D., Wand, H., Wilson, D.P. (2012)
Sexual Health, 10(1):43-46
HIV Treatment as Prevention: Models, Data, and Questions toward Evidence-Based Decision-Making
The HIV Modelling Consortium Treatment as Prevention Editorial Writing Group (Barnighausen, T., Becker, S., Bendavid, E., Bershteyn, A., Blandford, J., Boily, M.-C., Burns, D., Cambiano, V., Cohen, M.S., Cremin, I., Delva, W., Dye, C., Eaton, J.W., Egger, M., Fraser, C., Galai, N., Garnett, G., Ghys, P.D., Hallett, T.B., Heaton, L., Holmes, C.B., Hontelez, J., Jewell, B., Keiser, O., Klein, D., Lima, V., Long, E., Lyerla, R., Marais, C., Meng, F., Meyer-Rath, G., Miller, W.C., Muraguri, N., Nichols, B.E., Nigmatulina, K.R., Over, M., Padian, N., Phillips, A., Pretorius, C., Rousseau, C., Salomon, J., Sangrujee, N., Serwadda, D., Tanser, F., Vesga, J.F., Vickerman, P., Walker, D., Wang, R., Welte, A., White, R.G., Williams, B., Wilson, D.P., Wilson, D., Zaba B.). (2012)
PLoS Medicine, 9(7):e1001259
Estimating the cost-effectiveness of needle-syringe programs in Australia.
Kwon J.A., Anderson J., Kerr C.C., Thein H.H., Zhang L., Iversen J., Dore G.J., Kaldor J.M., Law M.G., Maher L., Wilson D. (2012) [Appendix]
AIDS 26(17):2201-10
Projected demographic profile of people living with HIV in Australia: planning for an older generation
Jansson, J., Wilson, D.P. (2012)
PLoS One, 7(8):e38334
HIV Treatment as Prevention: Principles of Good HIV Epidemiology Modelling For Public Health Decision-Making in All Modes of Prevention and Evaluation
Delva, W., Wilson, D.P., Abu-Raddad, L., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D., Hallett, T.B., Welte, A. (2012)
PLoS Medicine, 9(7):e1001239
HIV Treatment as Prevention: Natural experiments highlight limits of antiretroviral treatment as HIV prevention
Wilson, D.P. (2012)
PLoS Medicine, 9(7):e1001231
Expected epidemiological impacts of introducing an HIV vaccine in Thailand: a model-based analysis
Schneider, K., Kerr, C.C., Hoare, A., Wilson, D.P. (2011)
Vaccine, 29:6086-6091
Expected epidemiological impact of the introduction of a partially effective HIV vaccine among men who have sex with men in Australia
Gray, R.T., Ghaus, M.H., Hoare, A., Wilson, D.P. (2011)
Vaccine, 29:6125-6129
Economic evaluation of monitoring virologic responses to antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings
Schneider, K., Puthanakit, T., Kerr, S., Law, M.G., Cooper, D.A., Donovan, B., Phanuphak, N., Sirisanthana, V., Ananworanich, J., Ohata, J., Wilson, D.P. (2011)
AIDS, 25:1143-1151
How low can you go: The impact of a modestly effective HIV vaccine compared with male circumcision
Kaldor, J.M., Wilson, D.P. (2010)
AIDS, 24:2573-2578
An HIV epidemic is ready to emerge in the Philippines
Farr, A.C., Wilson, D.P. (2010)
Journal of the International AIDS Society, 13:16
What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?
Gray, R.T., Heymer, K.J., Hoare, A., Kwon, J.A., Thein, H.H., Lote, N., Siba, P., Saramony, S., Saphonn, V., Worth, H., Kaldor, J.M., Wilson, D.P. (2009)
Current HIV Research, 7:656-665
Cost-effectiveness of adult circumcision for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men in a resource-rich setting
Anderson, J.S., Wilson, D.P., Templeton, D.J., Grulich, A.E., Carter, R., Kaldor, J.M. (2009)
Journal of Infectious Disease, 200:1803-1812
The impact of needle and syringe programs on HIV and HCV transmissions in injecting drug users in Australia: a model-based analysis
Kwon, J.A., Iversen, J., Maher, L., Law, M.G., Wilson, D.P. (2009)
J AIDS, 51(4):462-469
Relation between HIV viral load and infectiousness? A model-based analysis
Wilson, D.P., Law, M.G., Grulich, A.E., Cooper, D.A., Kaldor, J.M. (2008)
The Lancet, 372:314-20
The paradoxical effects of using antiretroviral-based microbicides to control HIV epidemics
Wilson, D.P., Coplan, P.M., Wainberg, M.A., Blower, S.M. (2008)
PNAS, 105(28):9835-40
Mathematical models and health economic aspects of microbicides
Wilson, D.P., Coplan, P.M. (2008)
Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS, 3:587-592
Using mathematical modelling to help explain the differential increase in HIV incidence in New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland: the importance of other STIs
Hoare, A., Wilson, D.P., Regan, D.G., Kaldor, J., Law, M.G. (2008)
Sexual Health, 5:169-187
How far will we need to go to reach HIV-infected people in rural South Africa?
Wilson, D.P., Blower, S.M. (2007)
BMC Medicine, 5(1), 16
Predicting the epidemiological impact of antiretroviral allocation strategies in KwaZulu-Natal: The effect of the urban-rural divide
Wilson, D.P., Kahn, J.O., Blower, S.M. (2006)
PNAS, 103(38):14228-14233
Rational choices for allocating antiretrovirals in Africa: treatment equity, epidemiological efficiency and feasibility
Wilson, D.P., Blower, S.M. (2006)
PLoS Medicine, 3(3), e160
Allocating Antiretrovirals in South Africa: Using Modeling to Determine Treatment Equity
Wilson, D.P., Blower, S.M. (2005)
PLoS Medicine, 2(6):563-564
Designing Equitable Antiretroviral Allocation Strategies in Resource-Constrained Countries
Wilson, D.P., Blower, S.M. (2005)
PLoS Medicine, 2(2):132-141
Optima Technical Reports
Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group
Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group
Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group
National TB Program Mozambique, World Bank, University College London, Burnet Institute
Optimizing investment in Romania's tuberculosis response (2019)
Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group
Optimizing investments in Moldova’s tuberculosis response (2018)
Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group, IMSP Phthisiopneumology Institute, PAS, Ministry of Health Moldova
Optimizing investments in Belarus’ tuberculosis response (2017)
The World Bank Group for the Government of Belarus
2023
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries: Findings from Optima HIV modeling analyses across 12 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Albania
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Armenia
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Azerbaijan
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Belarus
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Georgia
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Kazakhstan
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Kosovo
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Kyrgyzstan
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Moldova
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Serbia
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Tajikistan
Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Uzbekistan
2020
Improving Allocative Efficiency of the HIV Response in Kenya: A Country-Level Analysis Using the Optima HIV Model
Ending the AIDS epidemic in Cambodia
EECA English 2020; EECA Russian 2020
Improving efficiency of the HIV response in Malawi: Findings from an Optima HIV modelling analysis
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Armenia
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Azerbaijan
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Belarus
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Georgia
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Kazakhstan
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Kyrgyzstan
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Moldova
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Romania
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Tajikistan
Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Ukraine
2019
Improving the Allocative Efficiency of the HIV Response Across the Care Cascade in Zimbabwe: Findings from a Modelling Analysis
Improving the allocative efficiency of Kosovo’s HIV response
2018
Optimizing Investments in the National HIV Response of Mexico
Optimizando la Inversión del Plan de Respuesta de Colombia al VIH
2017
Allocating HIV Funding Efficiently in Myanmar: Analyses Using the Optima HIV Model
Allocative Efficiency Analysis (HIV) 2015-2030 for Karnataka & Punjab — India
Optimización de las inversiones para la respuesta al VIH en Perú
Optimizing Investments for a Sustainable and Efficient HIV Response in Togo
Optimización de la inversión en VIH/SIDA en Argentina
Calvo N., Lavadenz F., Reporter I., Petravic J., Pantanali C., Lavadenz, C. (2017)
Ending AIDS in Johannesburg: An analysis of the status and scale-up towards HIV treatment and prevention targets.
Optimizing Investments for a Sustainable and Efficient HIV Response in Senegal: Findings from an HIV Allocative Efficiency Study
HIV Investment in Cote d’Ivoire: Optimized allocation of HIV resources for a sustainable and efficient HIV response
Optimizing investments in Bulgaria’s HIV response
The World Bank Group, Global Fund, UINAIDS, and UNDP for the Government of Bulgaria
Value for money in Ukraine’s HIV response: strategic investment and improved efficiency
Science addressing drugs and HIV: State of the Art: 2nd Scientific Statement
2Nd Scientific Statement March 2016
Allocative and implementation efficiency in HIV prevention and treatment for people who inject drugs
Efficiency In HIV Harm Reduction For PWID
Optimizing Investments in the National HIV Responses of Indonesia and Thailand: a Report for World Health Organization South-east Asia Regional Office
Who Sear Indonesia Thailand Report
2015
A Case Study on How Allocative Efficiency Analysis Supported by Mathematical Modelling Changed HIV Investment in Sudan. From Analysis to Action
Optimizing Investments in Moldova’s HIV Response
The World Bank Group, Global Fund, UNAIDS, and UNDP for the Government of Moldova
Optimizing investments in Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s HIV response
The World Bank Group for the Government of FYR Macedonia [PDF]
Modelling an Optimised Investment Approach for Uzbekistan: sustainable financing of National HIV responses
Zambia’s HIV Response: Prioritised and strategic allocation of HIV resources for impact and sustainability (findings from the HIV allocative efficiency study)
The World Bank Group and UNSW Australia for the Government of Zambia
Investing for Results: How Asia Pacific countries can invest for ending AIDS. High-level panel for AIDS Funding Landscape in Asia and the Pacific
2014
Sudan’s HIV response: Value for money in a low-level HIV epidemic; Findings from the HIV allocative efficiency study
The World Bank Group and UNSW Australia
Optimizing allocation of resources for HIV/AIDS responses: presented to the United Nations General Assembly
HIV Mathematical Modelling to Support Swaziland's Development of its HIV Investment Case
HIV resource needs, availabilities and gaps across ASEAN countries
Niger’s HIV response: Targeted investments for a health future. Findings from the HIV allocative efficiency and financial sustainability study
Ukraine HIV Program Efficiency Study: Can Ukraine improve value for money in HIV service delivery?
Ukraine HIV Program Efficiency Report Final With Cover
HIV Investment in Armenia: Analysis & Recommendations
Modelling an optimized investment approach for Tajikistan
Tajikistan Report Ru; Tajikistan Report En
Evaluation of a Decade of DFID and World Bank Supported HIV and AIDS Programmes in Vietnam from 2003 to 2012
HIV Resource Needs, Efficient Allocation and Resource Mobilization for the Republic of Belarus
2012
Assessment of the allocation of HIV funding in Indonesia.
2011
The Papua New Guinea HIV Model: explaining the past, describing the present, and forecasting the future of the HIV epidemic in PNG
PNG HIV Model Reports; PNG HIV Modeling Report Technical Appendix; PNG HIV Model Software Manual
Evaluation of the epidemiological impact of harm reduction programs on HIV in Vietnam
The HIV in Indonesia Model (HIM)
HIV In Indonesia (HIM) Report; HIM Software Manual
Epidemiology and modeling report on HIV/AIDS in the Philippines
Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia (prepared for AusAID)
Mathematical models to investigate recent trends in HIV notifications among men who have sex with men in Australia
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