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Modelling and Biostatistics Group

Head: Dr Nick Scott
Deputy Head: Dr Rachel Sacks-Davis

Modelling plays a critical role in translating data into decision-making evidence.

Our dynamic, interdisciplinary team uses modelling to guide effective and cost-effective responses infectious diseases and global health problems. We are at the forefront of modelling across numerous thematic areas, including: 

  • COVID-19
  • Hepatitis C
  • Hepatitis B
  • HIV
  • Tuberculosis
  • Malaria
  • Nutrition
  • Maternal, Newborn and Child health
  • Adolescent Health
  • Health systems and service delivery platforms

Our methodological approaches are adapted to the data available and key policy questions being addressed, and includes a variety of: 

  • Deterministic and stochastic models
  • Population-level and agent-based models
  • Compartmental and network models
  • Costing studies
  • Cost-effectiveness analyses
  • Cost-benefit and return on investment analyses
  • Resource optimisation analyses
  • Analyses of large datasets using statistical and machine learning approaches

Discover more about Burnet's modelling work in Episode 7 of our How Science Matters podcast below.

Associate Professor Nick Scott

Dr Nick Scott, BSc (hons), PhD (Mathematics) is the Head of Modelling & Biostatistics at the Burnet Institute, an Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at Monash University, and an NHMRC Emerging Leader Fellow. He leads a team of modellers who work across a number of infectious diseases and public health problems.

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Working
Group

Meet the working group. Together, we are translating research into better health, for all.

Optima

Helping decision-makers choose the best public health investments

The primary Consortium partners for developing and applying the Optima suite of tools are Burnet InstituteUniversity College LondonUniversity of Bern, and the University of New South Wales.

Optima tools have been developed and applied in close partnership and with funding from global health agencies including the: World BankGlobal Fund, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. Optima also receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Click on the relevant card to explore the apps, or click here to view publications.

Optima HIV Modelling
PROJECT Optima HIV Modelling
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Optima Nutrition Modelling
PROJECT Optima Nutrition Modelling
Optima Tuberculosis (TB) Modelling
PROJECT Optima Tuberculosis (TB) Modelling
Optima Malaria Modelling
PROJECT Optima Malaria Modelling

Optima Publications

Optima Technical Reports

2024

Evaluating cost-effective investments to reduce the burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) in Tajikistan

National TB Protection Program of the Republic of Tajikistan, Burnet Institute, Global Fund

 

Evaluating cost-effective investments to reduce the burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) in Kyrgyz Republic

National Tuberculosis Control Program Kyrgyz Republic, Burnet Institute, Global Fund

 

2023

Evaluating cost-effective investments to reduce the burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) in Uzbekistan)

National Tuberculosis Control Program, USAID STAR, Global Fund, Burnet Institute

 

Evaluating cost-effective investments to reduce the burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) in Moldova

Ministry of Health, Center for Health Policies and Studies (PAS Center), Phthisiopneumology Institute “Chiril Draganiuc” /National Tuberculosis Program (NTP), Global Fund, Burnet Institute

 

Evaluating cost-effective investments to reduce the burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) in Belarus

Republican Research and Practical Centre for Pulmonology and Tuberculosis, National TB Program, Global Fund, Burnet Institute

 

2020

Optimizing investments in the tuberculosis response in Blantyre, Lilongwe, and Mzimba districts, Malawi: results of a TB allocative efficiency study

Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group

 

 

 

2019

Optimizing investments in Mozambique's tuberculosis response: results of a tuberculosis efficiency study

National TB Program Mozambique, World Bank, University College London, Burnet Institute

 

Optimizing investment in Romania's tuberculosis response

Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group

 

2018

Optimizing investments in Moldova’s tuberculosis response

Burnet Institute, the World Bank Group, IMSP Phthisiopneumology Institute, PAS, Ministry of Health Moldova

 

2017

Optimizing investments in Belarus’ tuberculosis response

The World Bank Group for the Government of Belarus

2023

Analyses for impact, efficiency, and sustainability of priority key population HIV services in Asia: Sri Lanka

National STD/AIDS control program (NSACP), Family Planning Association (FPA)-Sri Lanka, Burnet Institute, Health Equity Matters, UNAIDS

 

Analyses for impact, efficiency, and sustainability of priority key population HIV services in Asia: Bhutan

National HIV/AIDS and STI Control Program (NACP), Ministry of Health, Save the Children Bhutan, Burnet Institute, Health Equity Matters, UNAIDS

 

Analyses for impact, efficiency, and sustainability of priority key population HIV services in Asia: Mongolia

National Centre for Communicable Diseases, Ministry of Health Youth For Health, Perfect Ladies, Burnet Institute, Health Equity Matters, UNAIDS

 

Focusing and sustaining the HIV response in Cambodia: Findings from an Optima HIV modelling analysis 2023

National Center for HIV/AIDS, Dermatology and HIV, UNAIDS, Burnet Institute, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria

 

Focusing and sustaining the HIV response in Cambodia: More spending on focused HIV prevention may bring HIV targets within reach

National Center for HIV/AIDS, Dermatology and HIV, UNAIDS, Burnet Institute (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries: Findings from Optima HIV modeling analyses across 12 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

National Teams, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Albania

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Armenia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Azerbaijan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Belarus

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Georgia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Kazakhstan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Kosovo

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Kyrgyzstan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Moldova

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Serbia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Tajikistan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Uzbekistan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

2020

Improving Allocative Efficiency of the HIV Response in Kenya: A Country-Level Analysis Using the Optima HIV Model

Lukoba, B., Simiyu, J., Chege, W., Kelly, S., Minnery, M., Sithole, L., Shubber, Z. (2020)

 

Ending the AIDS epidemic in Cambodia (English) (русский)

National Team, UNAIDS, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

 

Improving efficiency of the HIV response in Malawi: Findings from an Optima HIV modelling analysis

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Armenia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Azerbaijan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Belarus

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Georgia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Kazakhstan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Kyrgyzstan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Moldova

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Romania

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Tajikistan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Ukraine

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

 

2019

Improving the Allocative Efficiency of the HIV Response Across the Care Cascade in Zimbabwe: Findings from a Modelling Analysis

Taramusi I., Sisimayi C., Benedikt C., Cheikh N., Fraser N., Shubber Z., del Mar Quiroga M., Minnery M., Martin-Hughes R., Kelly S. (2019)

 

Improving the allocative efficiency of Kosovo’s HIV response

Burnet Institute, Community Development Fund, National Institute of Public Health, Ministry of Health of Kosovo, Global Fund (2019)

 

2018

Optimizing Investments in the National HIV Response of Mexico

Gutierrez C., Lavadenz F., Macias C., Petravic J., Lavadenz L. (2018)

 

Optimizando la Inversión del Plan de Respuesta de Colombia al VIH

Gutierrez C., Stuart R.M., Wilson D.P., Lavadenz F., Reporter I., Kerr C. (2018)

 

2017

Allocating HIV Funding Efficiently in Myanmar: Analyses Using the Optima HIV Model

Optima Consortium for Decision Science, the University of Bern, the University of New South Wales, and the Burnet Institute, UNAIDS, Myanmar Ministry of Health and Sports, the World Bank Group (2017)

 

Allocative Efficiency Analysis (HIV) 2015-2030 for Karnataka & Punjab — India

Public Health Foundation of India in collaboration with National AIDS Control Organisation, National Institute of Medical Statistics, and Burnet Institute (2017)

 

Optimización de las inversiones para la respuesta al VIH en Perú

Prieto L., Montañez V., Petravic J., Reporter I., Medici A. (2017)

 

Optimizing Investments for a Sustainable and Efficient HIV Response in Togo

University College London, Burnet Institute, University of New South Wales (2017)

 

Optimización de la inversión en VIH/SIDA en Argentina

Calvo N., Lavadenz F., Reporter I., Petravic J., Pantanali C., Lavadenz, C.

 

2016

Ending AIDS in Johannesburg: An analysis of the status and scale-up towards HIV treatment and prevention targets.

Burnet Institute, Optima Consortium for Decision Science, The World Bank Group for the Gauteng Province Department of Health and South African Department of Health

 

Optimizing Investments for a Sustainable and Efficient HIV Response in Senegal: Findings from an HIV Allocative Efficiency Study

Government of Senegal, UNAIDS, the Optima Consortium for Decision Science, the University of Bern, the University of New South Wales, the Kirby Institute, and the Burnet Institute

 

HIV Investment in Cote d’Ivoire: Optimized allocation of HIV resources for a sustainable and efficient HIV response

University of Bern, University of New South Wales, Burnet Institute, and The World Bank

 

Optimizing investments in Bulgaria’s HIV response

University College London, Burnet Institute, University of New South Wales

 

Optimizing investments in Belarus for the National HIV Response

Atroshchanka O., Fisenka A., Ilyenkova V., Đurić P., Gray R., Benedikt C., Masaki E., Obst M., Kokiashvili D., Maxim C., Sakvarelidze G., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Hamelmann C., Kerr C., Stuart R., Wilson D.P., Görgens M., Nguyen S.N., Wilson D.

 

Optimizing Investments in the Kyrgyz Republic’s HIV Response

Maitieva V., Ianbukhtina L., Mambetov T., Bashmakova L., Sarybaeva M., Đurić P., Shattock A., Benedikt C., Masaki E., Obst M., Soorombaeva D., Abarbekova A., Kazizova M., Irbe S., Kokiashvili D., Mdivani N., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Scutelniciuc O., Hamelmann C., Macauley J., Stuart R., Kerr C., Wilson D.P., Patel R., Nguyen S.N., Görgens M.

 

Value for money in Ukraine’s HIV response: strategic investment and improved efficiency

Kuzin I., Sharapka K., Gvozdeva E., Kerr C., Stuart R., Masaki E., Goroshko A., Benedikt C., Nizova N., Wilson D.P., Boyko J., Belli P., Görgens M., Wilson D., Manova M., Hailevich R., Tyszko J., Đurić P., Hamelmann c., Zhang S., Sakvarelidze G., Görgens M., Belli P., Doroshenko O., Fraser N., Garcia R.R., Shubber Z.

 

Optimizing Investments in Georgia’s HIV Response

Asatiani A., Baliashvili D., Khonelidze I., Ruadze E., Stvilia K., Tsereteli M., Chokoshvili O., Haghparast-Bidgoli H., Grobicki L., Panovska-Griffiths J., Skordis-Worrall J., Benedikt C., Kerr C., Stuart R., Wilson D.P., Görgens M., Masaki E., Hailevic R., Manova M., Kokiashvili D., Loncar D., Sakanyan T., Zhang S., Đurić P., Hamelmann C.

 

Optimizing HIV Investments in Armenia

Grigoryan S., Grigoryan T., Hovhannisyan R., Papoyan A., Kelly S., Benedikt C., Cuadros D.F., Masaki E., Obst M., Grishechkina V., Kokiashvili D., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Đurić P., Hamelmann C., Kerr C., Stuart R., Wilson D.P., Nguyen S.N., Görgens M., Heard W.

 

Optimizing investments in Kazakhstan’s HIV response

Baiserkin B.S., Bokazhanova A., Ganina L.U., Kalinich N.F., Kazimova A.A., Petrenko I.I., Yelizarieva A.V., Đurić P., Shattock A., Benedikt C., Masaki E., Obst M., Farcy N., Kokiashvili D., Vinichenko T., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Scutelniciuc O., Hamelmann C., Kerr C., Stuart R.M., Wilson D.P., Nguyen S.N., Görgens M., Wilson D., Patel R., Bortman M., Zhumadil B.

 

Science addressing drugs and HIV: State of the Art: 2nd Scientific Statement

Des Jarlais D., Bastos F., Benedikt C., Feelemyer J., Hayashi K., Kelly S., Kerr T., Lim H., Loh J., Milloy M.J.S., Shoptaw S., Williams A., Wilson D.P., Wilson D., Beg M., Hariga F.

 

Allocative and implementation efficiency in HIV prevention and treatment for people who inject drugs

Wilson D., Benedikt C., Kelly S., Wilson D.P.

 

Optimizing Investments in the National HIV Responses of Indonesia and Thailand: a Report for World Health Organization South-east Asia Regional Office

Grantham K., Reagan D., Law M., Wilson D.P.

 

2015

A Case Study on How Allocative Efficiency Analysis Supported by Mathematical Modelling Changed HIV Investment in Sudan. From Analysis to Action

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing Investments in Moldova’s HIV Response

University of New South Wales, Burnet Institute

 

Optimizing investments in Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s HIV response

University College London, Burnet Institute, University of New South Wales

 

Modelling an Optimised Investment Approach for Uzbekistan: sustainable financing of National HIV responses

Wilson D.P., Kerr C., Đurić P., Hamelmann C.

 

Zambia’s HIV Response: Prioritised and strategic allocation of HIV resources for impact and sustainability (findings from the HIV allocative efficiency study)

Masaki E., Fraser N., Haacker M., Obst M., Wootton R., Sunkutu R., Gorgens M., Gray R.T., Shattock A., Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P.

 

Investing for Results: How Asia Pacific countries can invest for ending AIDS. High-level panel for AIDS Funding Landscape in Asia and the Pacific

Shattock A., Gray R., Donald B., Stuart R., Lief E., Zhang L., Wilson D.

 

2014

Sudan’s HIV response: Value for money in a low-level HIV epidemic; Findings from the HIV allocative efficiency study

Fraser N., Benedikt C., Obst M., Masaki E., Gorgens M., Stuart R., Shattock A., Gray R.T., Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P.

 

Optimizing allocation of resources for HIV/AIDS responses: presented to the United Nations General Assembly

Wilson D.P., Stuart R., Shattock A., Gray R., Kelly S.

 

HIV Mathematical Modelling to Support Swaziland's Development of its HIV Investment Case

Kelly S., Shattock A., Kerr C.C., Gama T., Nhlabatsi N., Zagatti G., Harimurti P., Wilson D.P., Gorgens M.

 

HIV resource needs, availabilities and gaps across ASEAN countries

Wilson D.P., Shattock A., Gray R.

 

Niger’s HIV response: Targeted investments for a health future. Findings from the HIV allocative efficiency and financial sustainability study

Fraser N., Cheikh N., Haacker M., Masaki E., Karamoko D., Gorgens M., Frescura L., Konan C., Kerr C.C., Gray R.T., Shattock A., Wilson D.P.

 

Ukraine HIV Program Efficiency Study: Can Ukraine improve value for money in HIV service delivery?

Wilson D.P., Razali K., Henderson K., Maher L., Ellard J., Shattock A., Semini I., Masaki E., Gorgens M.

 

HIV Investment in Armenia: Analysis & Recommendations

Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P.

 

Modelling an optimized investment approach for Tajikistan (русский) (English)

Duric P., Hammelmann C., Wilson D.P., Kerr C.C.

 

Evaluation of a Decade of DFID and World Bank Supported HIV and AIDS Programmes in Vietnam from 2003 to 2012

Zhang L., Maher L., Pham D.Q., Higgs P., Anh N.D., Duc B.H. Shattock A., Hoa D.M., Wilson D.P.

 

2013

HIV Resource Needs, Efficient Allocation and Resource Mobilization for the Republic of Belarus

Wilson D.P., Yakusik A., Kerr C.C., Avila C.

 

2012

Assessment of the allocation of HIV funding in Indonesia.

Gray R.T., Reyes J., Nadjib M., Harimurti P., Wilson D.P.

 

2011

The Papua New Guinea HIV Model: explaining the past, describing the present, and forecasting the future of the HIV epidemic in PNG (PNG HIV Model Reports) (PNG HIV Modeling Report Technical Appendix) (PNG HIV Model Software Manual)

Gray R.T., Murray J.M., Wilson D.P., Vallely A., Kaldor J.

 

Evaluation of the epidemiological impact of harm reduction programs on HIV in Vietnam

Wilson D.P., Loo V., Zhang L., Thein H.H., Gray R., Kwon A.

 

The HIV in Indonesia Model (HIM) (HIM Report) (HIM Software Manual)

Wilson D.P., Riono P., Kerr C., Kwon A., Zhang L., Kaldor J., Sutrisna A., Farid M.N., Hadi N.

 

2010

Epidemiology and modeling report on HIV/AIDS in the Philippines

Farr A.C., Wilson D.P.

 

2009

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia (prepared for AusAID)

Wilson D.P., Gray R., Heymer K.J., Hoare A., Kwon J., Thein H.H., Worth H., Kaldor J.

 

2008

Mathematical models to investigate recent trends in HIV notifications among men who have sex with men in Australia

Wilson D.P., Hoare A., Regan D.G., Wand H., Law M.G.

Projects

Hepatitis B modelling
PROJECT Hepatitis B modelling
COVID-19 modelling (Covasim)
PROJECT COVID-19 modelling (Covasim)
HMHB - Health Services for Postnatal and Infancy Care
PROJECT HMHB - Health Services for Postnatal and Infancy Care
The Optimise Study: Optimising Isolation, Quarantine and Distancing for COVID-19
PROJECT The Optimise Study: Optimising Isolation, Quarantine and Distancing for COVID-19
Optima HIV Modelling
PROJECT Optima HIV Modelling
Optima Malaria Modelling
PROJECT Optima Malaria Modelling
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Optima Nutrition Modelling
PROJECT Optima Nutrition Modelling
Optima Tuberculosis (TB) Modelling
PROJECT Optima Tuberculosis (TB) Modelling
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Using mathematical models to generate evidence to support Australia’s COVID-19 responses and prepare for future pandemics
PROJECT Using mathematical models to generate evidence to support Australia’s COVID-19 responses and prepare for future pandemics