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Hepatitis B Modelling

The World Health Organization estimates viral hepatitis B causes at least 800,000 deaths annually. Although chronic infection remains incurable; a series of interventions are available (including vaccination, antiviral therapy, and rapid diagnostic tests) to achieve elimination by 2030, defined as:

  • A 90% reduction in hepatitis B incidence (vs 2015)
  • A 65% reduction in hepatitis B mortality (vs 2015)

However, a current lack of funding and political impetus mean coverage of interventions is suboptimal, and elimination targets are unlikely to be met. We aim to use mathematical models to help provide evidence-based solutions to overcome these barriers, including:

  • Health and economic benefits of expanding intervention coverage across a range of national and international settings
  • Value propositions for alternate or new technologies to assist in achieving hepatitis B elimination targets
  • An OPTIMA HBV model to improve allocative efficiency of interventions within countries.

2018 – ongoing

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Associate Professor Nick Scott

Contact Associate Professor Nick Scott for more information about this project.