COVID-19 pandemic mortality data

This report evaluates mortality patterns in Australia and comparable countries. We analyse these trends during 2 main periods: the early phase (2020-21) and the later phase (2022 onwards). 

Our report measures excess mortality. Excess mortality is defined as the difference between deaths during the pandemic, compared to the expected number of deaths based on historical trends. 

This approach captures a more comprehensive picture of COVID-19's impact and accounts for deaths indirectly caused by the pandemic, including:

• deaths caused by undiagnosed COVID-19
• deaths that resulted from healthcare disruptions
• long-term health problems caused by previous COVID infection.

The total estimated excess mortality in Australia between January 2020 and November 2024 stands at 31,000 lives.

Our report explains:

• how public health measures affected COVID-19 mortality in Australia
• Australia’s experience compared to other countries
• why the poorest 20% of the population had 2.8 times the mortality rate of people in the top 20%
• why governments and health leaders must invest in pandemic preparedness.

Australia took a unique and early approach to managing the pandemic by having strict border controls and extensive testing and tracing. As a result, Australia was able to minimise the spread of COVID-19 through most of 2020 and early 2021. 

During this period, Australia experienced negative excess mortality, or fewer deaths than expected based on historical trends. Public health measures such as physical distancing also reduced the spread of other viruses like the flu.

From 2022 onward, the pandemic widened existing health inequalities in Australia. 

The emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021 coincided with Australia's reopening. COVID-19 cases surged from around 1,500 daily cases in December 2021 to over 100,000 daily cases by January 2022. 

The data showed the resulting deaths were unequally distributed. People who faced barriers to healthcare access had higher excess mortality. Factors like such as socioeconomic background, race and immigration status all played a role. The poorest 20% of the population had 2.8 times the mortality rate of people in the wealthiest 20%.  

Additionally, people born overseas experienced 1.4 times the mortality rate of Australian-born residents, and First Nations Peoples experienced had 1.8 times the mortality rate of non-Indigenous people.

Our report used statistical models to compare COVID-19 mortality across different countries. We found mortality rates could be clearly linked to pandemic management. 

Several countries took delayed or inconsistent action in response to COVID-19. They included Italy, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. These countries experienced much greater excess mortality compared to Australia.  

If Australia had experienced the same mortality rates as the UK or US, an additional 55,000 lives would have been lost between 2020 and 2023.

Like Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and Japan benefited from geographic isolation during the pandemic. They also took early, decisive action to suppress or eliminate COVID-19. 

Unlike Australia, in Taiwan and Japan, the importance of clean indoor air was well understood and strategies were in place prior to COVID-19. The impact of the pandemic was mitigated through proper ventilation of public spaces and cultural practices such as ongoing mask wearing.

Our report shows Australia must strengthen its pandemic preparation. We need to invest in public health infrastructure to detect and respond to pandemic threats quickly and decisively. Around the world, early interventions have led to better health outcomes and fewer deaths. 

We need to continue and improve sustainable and simple public health strategies, including:

• continued vaccination
• breathing clean indoor air through ventilation or masking
• community-based testing and acting on the result (isolation and/or treatment).  

We must continue research and innovation to develop new tools that curb transmission in the face of an evolving virus, long COVID. Beyond COVID-19, the same investment is needed to best protect against future, unknown pathogen threats.

Our findings support 4 priorities for future pandemic preparedness:

• invest in pandemic preparedness
• act swiftly and decisively
• address inequity
• ensure sustainable responses.

Invest in pandemic preparedness

Australia must strengthen its pandemic detection and response capacity. This will require sustained political commitment, international cooperation and reform (pandemic treaty), and investment in public health systems, workforce and infrastructure centred on an independent, transparent and properly resourced Australian Centre for Disease Control that collaborates with leading scientific institutions.

Act swiftly and decisively

Effective pandemic management requires swift action to contain outbreaks before they become pandemics. During an emergency response, rapid decisions cannot wait for complete certainty. Instead they have to use available and evolving evidence. Early interventions that apply a precautionary approach produce better mortality outcomes.

Address inequity

Future pandemic planning must explicitly support and prevent impacts in disadvantaged communities. Approaches must place communities at the centre, and include tailored health communication, enhanced health care access and appropriate social and economic support measures.

Sustainable responses

COVID-19 impacts are ongoing, and pandemics have long-lasting effects. Building trust through sustained community partnerships and engagement is fundamental. Pandemic fatigue, misinformation and disinformation should be actively addressed. Developing integrated surveillance systems that inform communities through timely and transparent data build trust. We can use 'passive controls' that don’t require behaviour change, like we do for waterborne infections. This involves implementing and optimising clean indoor air strategies for airborne infections.