close Icon

Modelling and Biostatistics Group

Head: Dr Nick Scott

Modelling plays a critical role in translating data into decision-making evidence.

Our dynamic, interdisciplinary team uses modelling to guide effective and cost-effective responses infectious diseases and global health problems. We are at the forefront of modelling across numerous thematic areas, including: 

  • COVID-19
  • Hepatitis C
  • Hepatitis B
  • HIV
  • Tuberculosis
  • Malaria
  • Nutrition
  • Maternal, Newborn and Child health
  • Adolescent Health
  • Health systems and service delivery platforms

Our methodological approaches are adapted to the data available and key policy questions being addressed, and includes a variety of: 

  • Deterministic and stochastic models
  • Population-level and agent-based models
  • Compartmental and network models
  • Costing studies
  • Cost-effectiveness analyses
  • Cost-benefit and return on investment analyses
  • Resource optimisation analyses
  • Analyses of large datasets using statistical and machine learning approaches

Discover more about Burnet's modelling work in Episode 7 of our How Science Matters podcast below.

SQUARE Nickscott 002 WEB

Associate Professor Nick Scott

Dr Nick Scott, BSc (hons), PhD (Mathematics) is the Head of Modelling & Biostatistics at the Burnet Institute, an Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at Monash University, and an NHMRC Emerging Leader Fellow. He leads a team of modellers who work across a number of infectious diseases and public health problems.

EMAIL CALL

Working
Group

Meet the working group. Together, we are translating research into better health, for all.

Optima

Helping decision-makers choose the best public health investments

The primary Consortium partners for developing and applying the Optima suite of tools are Burnet InstituteUniversity College LondonUniversity of Bern, and the University of New South Wales.

Optima tools have been developed and applied in close partnership and with funding from global health agencies including the: World BankGlobal Fund, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. Optima also receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Click on the relevant card to explore the apps, or click here to view publications.

National Cancer Institute Ci8t6zedbzw Unsplash
Optima HIV Modelling
PROJECT Arrow Icon
Holding Image
Optima Nutrition Modelling
PROJECT Arrow Icon
Dreamstime Xxl 209238243
Optima Tuberculosis (TB) Modelling
PROJECT Arrow Icon
Myanmar Malaria IMG 8144
Optima Malaria Modelling
PROJECT Arrow Icon

Optima Publications

The risks and benefits of providing HIV services during the COVID-19 pandemic
Stover, J., Kelly, S.L., Mudimu, E., Green, D., Smith, T., Taramusi, I., Bansi-Mantharu, L., Martin-Hughes, R., Phillips, A.N., Bershteyn, A. (2021)
PLoS One

 

Costs of providing HIV care and optimal allocation of HIV resources in Guyana
Suraratdecha, C., Stuart, R.M., Edwards, M., Moore, R., Liu, N., Wilson, D.P., Albalak, R. (2020)
PLoS One

 

Determining the optimal strategy for reopening schools, the impact of test and trace interventions, and the risk of occurrence of a second COVID-19 epidemic wave in the UK: a modelling study
Panovska-Griffiths, J., Kerr, C.C., Stuart, R.M., Mistry, D., Klein, D.J., Viner, R.M., Bonell, C. (2020)
Lancet Child & Adolescent Health

 

Potential effects of disruption to HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa caused by COVID-19: results from multiple models
Jewell, B., Mudimu, E., Stover, J. et al. for the HIV Modelling consortium (2020) [Appendix]
Lancet HIV

 

Sharing the costs of structural interventions: What can models tell us?
Stuart,R.M. and Wilson D.P. (2020)
International Journal of Drug Policy, 102702

The influence of constraints on the efficient allocation of resources for HIV prevention
Stuart, R.M., Kelly, S.L., Kerr, C.C., Martin-Hughes R., and Wilson, D.P. (2019)
AIDS, 33:1949–1956

 

Optimal allocation of HIV resources among geographical regions
Kedziora, D.J., Stuart, R.M., Pearson, J., Latypov, A., Dierst-Davies, R., Duda, M., Avaliani, N., Wilson, D.P. and Kerr, C.C. (2019)
BMC Public Health, 19:1509

 

What is the impact of a 20% funding cut in international HIV aid from the United States?
ten Brink, D., Martin-Hughes, R., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D.P. (2019)
AIDS, 33(8):1408-1408

 

Applying the 'no-one worse off' criterion to design Pareto efficient HIV responses in Sudan and Togo
Stuart, R.M., Haghparast-Bidgoli, H., Panovska-Griffiths, J., Grobicki, L., Skordis, J., Kerr, C.C., Kedziora, D.J., Martin-Hughes, R., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D.P. (2019)
AIDS, 33(7):1247-1252

A tale of two countries: Progress towards UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets in Botswana and Australia
Marukutira, T., Stoové, M., Lockman, S., Mills, L.A., Gaolathe, T., Lebelonyane, R., Jarvis, J.N., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D.P., Luchters, S., Crowe, S.M., Hellard, M. (2018)
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25190

 

Achieving 90-90-90 Human Immunodeficiency (HIV) targets will not be enough to achieve the HIV incidence reduction target in Australia
Scott, N., Stoové, M., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D.P., Hellard, M.E. (2018)
Clin Infect Dis, 66(7):1019-1023

 

Optima attempts to objectively and pragmatically assist countries meet their targets most efficiently and effectively
Wilson, D.P., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.J. (2018)
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25190

 

Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Two Hospitals of Thailand
Suraratdecha, C., Stuart, R., Manopaiboon, C., Green, D., Lertpiriyasuwat, C., Wilson, D., Pavaputanon, P., Visavakum, P., Monkongdee, P., Khawcharoenporn, T., Tharee, P., Kittinunvorakoon, C., Martin, M. (2018)
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25129

 

Optima Nutrition: an allocative efficiency tool to reduce childhood stunting by better targeting of nutrition-related interventions
Pearson, R., Killedar, M., Petravic, J., Kakietek, J.J., Scott, N., Grantham, K.L., Stuart, R.M., Kedziora, D.J., Kerr, C., Skordis-Worrall, J., Shekar, M., Wilson, D.P. (2018)
BMC Public Health, 18(1):384

 

How should HIV resources be allocated? Lessons learnt from applying Optima HIV in 23 countries
Stuart, R.M., Grobicki, L., Haghparast-Bidgoli, H., Skordis-Worrall, J., Keiser, O., Estill, J., Baranczuk, Z., Panovska-Griffiths, J., Kelly, S.L., Reporter, I., Kedziora, D.J., Shattock, A.J., Petravic, J., Hussain, S.A., Grantham, K.L., Gray, R.T., Yap, X.F., Martin-Hughes, R., Benedikt, C.J., Fraser-Hurt, N., Masaki, E., Wilson, D.J., Gorgens, M., Mziray, E., Cheikh, N., Shubber, Z., Kerr, C.C., Wilson, D.P. (2018)
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25097

 

The global Optima HIV allocative efficiency model: targeting resources in efforts to end AIDS
Kelly, S.L., Martin-Hughes, R., Stuart, R.M., Yap, X.F., Kedziora, D.J., Grantham, K.L., Hussain, S.A., Reporter, I., Shattock, A.J., Grobicki, L., Haghparast-Bidgoli, H., Skordis-Worrall, J., Baranczuk, Z., Keiser, O., Estill, J., Petravic, J., Gray, R.T., Benedikt, C.J., Fraser, N., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D., Kerr, C.C., Wilson, D.P. (2018)
Lancet HIV, 5(4):e190-e198

 

Optimization by Adaptive Stochastic Descent
Kerr, C.C., Dura-Bernal, S., Smolinski, T.G., Chadderdon, G.L., Wilson, D.P. (2018)
PLoS One13(3), e0192944

 

The City of Johannesburg can end AIDS by 2030: modeling the impact of achieving the fast-track targets and what it will take to get there
Stuart, R.M., Fraser-Hurt, N., Kerr, C.C., Mabusela, E., Madi, V., Mkhwanazi, F. Pillay, Y. Barron, P., Muzah, B., Matsebula, T., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.P. (2018).
J Int AIDS Society, 21:e25068

Getting it right when budgets are tight: using optimal expansion pathways to prioritize responses to concentrated and mixed HIV epidemics
Stuart, R.M., Kerr, C.C., Haghparast-Bidgoli, H., Estill, J., Grobicki, L., Baranczuk, Z., Prieto, L., Montañez, V., Reporter, I., Gray, R.T., Skordis-Worrall, J., Keiser, O., Cheikh, N., Boonto, K., Osornprasop, S., Lavadenz, F., Benedikt, C.J., Martin-Hughes, R., Hussain, A., Kelly, S.L., Kedziora, D.J., Wilson, D.P. (2017)
PLoS One, 12(10):e0185077

 

Maximizing the impact of malaria funding through allocative efficiency: using the right interventions in the right locations
Scott, N., Hussain, S.A., Martin-Hughes, R., Fowkes, F.J.I., Kerr, C.C., Pearson, R., Kedziora, D.J., Killedar, M., Stuart, R.M., Wilson, D.P. (2017)
Malaria Journal, 16:368

 

Acute HIV infection detection and immediate treatment estimated to reduce transmission by 89% among men who have sex with men in Bangkok
Kroon, E.D.M.B., Phanuphak, N., Shattock, A.J., Fletcher, J.L.K., Pinyakorn, S., Chomchey, N., Akapirat, S., de Souza, M.S., Robb, M.L., Kim, J.H.,van Griensven, F. , Ananworanich, J., Wilson, D.P. on behalf of the RV254/SEARCH 010 Study Group. (2017)
J Int AIDS Society, 20:21708

Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious HIV targets by combining improved ART procurement mechanisms with allocative and implementation efficiencies
Shattock, A.J., Benedikt, C., Bokazhanova, A., Đurić, P., Petrenko, I., Ganina, L., Kelly, S.L., Stuart, R.M., Kerr, C.C., Vinichenko, T., Zhang, S., Hamelmann, C., Manova, M., Masaki, E., Wilson, D.P., Gray, R.T. (2016)
PLoS One, 12(2)

 

Allocative and implementation efficiency in HIV prevention and treatment for people who inject drugs
Benedikt, C., Kelly, S.L., Wilson, D., Wilson, D.P. on behalf of the Optima Consortium. (2016)
Int J Drug Policy, 38:73-80

 

GBD 2015 and HIV estimates from the Optima model
Kelly, S., Wilson, D.P. (2016)
The Lancet HIV, 3(12):e558

 

Optimizing HIV/AIDS resources in Armenia: increasing ART investment and examining HIV programs for seasonal migrant laborers.
Kelly, S.L., Shattock, A.J., Kerr, C.C., Stuart, R.M., Papoyan, A., Grigoryan, T., Hovhannisyan, R., Grigoryan, S., Benedikt, C., Wilson, D.P. (2016).
J Int AIDS Society, 19:20772

 

A no-brainer for ending AIDS: the case for a harm reduction decade
Cook, C., Lines, R., Wilson, D.P. (2016)
J Int AIDS Society, 19:21129

 

Local responses to local epidemics for national impact need advanced spatially-explicit tools
Grantham, K.L., Kerr, C.C., Wilson, D.P. (2016)
AIDS, 30(9):1481-1482

 

In the interests of time: improving HIV allocative efficiency modeling via optimal time-varying allocations
Shattock, A.J., Kerr, C.C., Stuart, R.M., Masaki, E., Fraser, N., Benedikt, C., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.P., Gray, R.T. (2016)
J Int AIDS Society, 19:20627

 

Projecting the epidemiological effect, cost-effectiveness and transmission of HIV drug resistance in Vietnam associated with viral load monitoring strategies
Pham, Q.D., Wilson, D.P., Nguyen, T.V., Do, N.T., Truong, L.X., Nguyen, L.T., Zhang, L. (2016)
J Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, 71(5):1367-1379

The funding landscape for HIV in Asia and the Pacific
Stuart, R.M., Lief, E., Donald, B., Wilson, D., Wilson, D.P. (2015)
J Int AIDS Society, 18:20004

 

Sustainable HIV Treatment in Africa through Viral Load-Informed Differentiated Care
Working Group on Modelling of ART Monitoring Strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa (Phillips, A., Shroufi, A., Vojnov, L., Cohn, J., Roberts, T., Ellman, T., Bonner, K., Rousseau, C., Garnett, G., Cambiano, V., Nakagawa, F., Ford, D., Bansi-Matharu, L., Miners, A., Lundgren, J., Eaton, J., Parkes-Rotanshi, R., Katz, Z., Maman, D., Ford, N., Vitoria, M., Doherty, M., Dowdy, D., Nichols, B., Murtagh, M., Wareham, M., Palamountain, K., Musanhu, C.C., Stevens, W., Katzenstein, D., Ciaranello, A., Barnabas, R., Braithwaite, S., Bendavid, E., Nathoo, K.J., van de Vijver, D., Wilson, D., Holmes, C., Bershteyn, A., Walker, S., Raizes, E., Jani, I., Nelson, L., Peeling, R., Terris-Prestholt, F., Murungu, J., Mutasa-Apollo, T., Hallett, T., Revill, P.). (2015)
Nature, 7580(528):S68-S76

 

Can we know in advance whether models will get it right?
Wilson, D.P., Kerr, C.C. (2015)
The Lancet Global Health, 3(10):e577-578

 

Re-orienting the HIV response in Niger towards sex work interventions: from better evidence to targeted and expanded practice
Fraser, N., Kerr, C.C., Harouna, Z., Alhousseini, Z., Cheikh, N., Gray, R., Shattock, A., Wilson, D.P., Haacker, M., Shubber, Z., Masaki, E., Karamoko, D., Görgens, M. (2015)
JAIDS, 68:S213–S220

 

Scaling up HIV treatment for MSM in Bangkok: what does it take? -- a modelling and costing study
Zhang, L., Phanuphak, N., Henderson, K., Nonenoy, S., Srikaew, S., Shattock, A., Kerr, C.C., Omune, B., van Griensven, F., Osornprasop, S., Oelrichs, R., Ananworanich, J., Wilson, D.P. (2015)
Lancet HIV, 2:e200–07

 

Optima: a model for HIV epidemic analysis, program prioritization, and resource optimization
Kerr, C.C., Stuart, R.M., Gray, R.T., Shattock, A., Fraser-Hurt, N., Benedikt, C., Haacker, M., Berdnikov, M., Mahmood, A.M., Jaber, S.A., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.P. (2015)
JAIDS, 69(3): 365-376

 

The cost-effectiveness of harm reduction
Wilson, D.P., Donald, B., Shattock, A.J., Wilson, D., Fraser-Hurt, N. (2015)
Int J Drug Policy, 26(S1):S5-S11

 

Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models
Eaton, J.W., Menzies, N.A., Stover, J., Cambiano, V., Chindelevitch, L., Cori, A., Hontelez, J.A.C., Humair, S., Kerr, C.C., Klein, D.J., Mishra, S., Mitchell, K.M., Nichols, B.E., Vickerman, P., Bärnighausen, T., Bershteyn, A., Bloom, D.E., Boily, M-C., Chang, S.T., Cohen, T., Dodd, P.J., Fraser, C., Gopalappa, C., Lundgren, J., Martin, N.K., Mountain, E., Pham, Q.D., Pickles, M., Phillips, A., Platt, L., Pretorius, C., Prudden, H.J., Salomon, J.A., van de Vijver, D.A.M.C., Wagner, B.G., White, R.G., Wilson, D.P., Zhang, L., Bandford, J., Meyer-Rath, G., Remme, M., Revill, P., Sangrujee, N., Terris-Prestholt, F., Doherty, M., Easterbrook, P., Hirnschall, G., Hallett, T.B. (2014) [Appendix]
The Lancet Global Health 2:e23-34 

Cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy expansion strategies in Vietnam
Tran, D.A., Wilson, D.P., Zhang, L., Shakeshaft, A., Ngo, A.D., Doran, C. (2014)
AIDS Patient Care and STDs, Jul;28(7):365-71

 

Reply to PrEP cost-effectiveness
Schneider, K., Gray, R.T., Wilson, D.P. (2014)
Clinical Infectious Diseases, 59 (1):141

 

Spending of HIV resources in Asia and Eastern Europe: systematic review reveals the need to shift funding allocations towards priority populations
Craig, A.P., Thein, H.H., Zhang, L., Gray, R.T., Henderson, K., Wilson, D., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D.P. (2014)
Journal of the International AIDS Society, 17:18822

 

Predicting the population impact of increased HIV testing and treatment in Australia
Jansson, J., Kerr, C.C., Wilson, D.P. (2014)
Sexual Health, 11:146–154

How should HIV programmes respond to evidence for the benefits of earlier treatment initiation? A combined analysis of twelve mathematical models
Eaton, J.W., Menzies, N.A., Stover, J., Cambiano, V., Chindelevitch, L., Cori, A., Hontelez, J.A.C., Humair, S., Kerr, C.C., Klein, D.J., Mishra, S., Mitchell, K.M., Nichols, B.E., Vickerman, P., Bakker, R., Bärnighausen, T., Bershteyn, A., Bloom, D.E., Boily M.-C., Chang S.T., Cohen T., Dodd, P.J., Fraser, C., Gopalappa, C., Lundgren, J., Martin N.K., Mikkelsen E., Mountain E., Pham Q.D., Pickles M., Phillips A., Platt L., Pretorius C., Prudden, H.J., Salomon, J.A., van de Vijver, D.A.M.C., de Vlas, S.J., Wagner, B.G., White, R.G., Wilson, D.P., Zhang, L., Blandford, J., Meyer-Rath, G., Remme, M., Revill, P., Sangrujee, N., Terris-Prestholt, F., Doherty, M., Shaffer, N., Easterbrook, P.J., Hirnschall, G., Hallett T.B. (2013)
Lancet Global Health, 2:e23-34

 

A cost-effectiveness analysis of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis for men who have sex with men in Australia
Schneider, K., Gray, R.T., Wilson, D.P. (2013)
Clinical Infectious Diseases, 58(7):1027-1034

 

HIV service capacity: identifying current and future areas of clinical shortage
Mallitt, K.A., Jansson, J., Wand, H., Crooks, L., Wilson, D.P. (2013)
Sexual Health, 11(1):17-23

 

HIV antiretroviral prophylaxis for injecting drug users
Craig, A.P., Gray, R., Jansson, J., Wilson, D.P. (2013)
The Lancet, 382:854-855

The potential cost and benefits of raltegravir in simplified second-line therapy among HIV infected patients in Nigeria and South Africa
Schneider, K., Nwizu, C., Kaplan, R., Anderson, J., Wilson, D.P., Emery, S., Cooper, D.A., Boyd, M.A. (2012)
PLoS One, 8(2):e54435

 

Understanding the modes of transmission model of new HIV infection and its use in prevention planning
Case, K.K., Ghys, P.D., Gouws, E., Eaton, J.W., Borquez, A., Stover, J., Cuchi, P., Abu-Raddad, L.J., Garnett, G.P., Hallett, T.B. on behalf of the HIV Modelling Consortium (Atun, R., Auvert, B., Bacaer, N., Barnighausen, T., Bershteyn, A., Boily, M.-C., Delva, W., Eckhoff, P., Foss, A., Heijne, J., Klein, D.J., Low, N., Lowndes, C.M., Mishra, S., Pretorius, C., Welte, A., White, P., Williams, B., Wilson, D., Wilson, D.P., Zaba, B., Prudden H.). (2012)
Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 90:831-838

 

Demand for HIV clinical services is increasing in Australia but supply is decreasing
Mallitt, K.A., Jansson, J., Crooks, L., McGuigan, D., Wand, H., Wilson, D.P. (2012)
Sexual Health, 10(1):43-46

 

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Models, Data, and Questions toward Evidence-Based Decision-Making
The HIV Modelling Consortium Treatment as Prevention Editorial Writing Group (Barnighausen, T., Becker, S., Bendavid, E., Bershteyn, A., Blandford, J., Boily, M.-C., Burns, D., Cambiano, V., Cohen, M.S., Cremin, I., Delva, W., Dye, C., Eaton, J.W., Egger, M., Fraser, C., Galai, N., Garnett, G., Ghys, P.D., Hallett, T.B., Heaton, L., Holmes, C.B., Hontelez, J., Jewell, B., Keiser, O., Klein, D., Lima, V., Long, E., Lyerla, R., Marais, C., Meng, F., Meyer-Rath, G., Miller, W.C., Muraguri, N., Nichols, B.E., Nigmatulina, K.R., Over, M., Padian, N., Phillips, A., Pretorius, C., Rousseau, C., Salomon, J., Sangrujee, N., Serwadda, D., Tanser, F., Vesga, J.F., Vickerman, P., Walker, D., Wang, R., Welte, A., White, R.G., Williams, B., Wilson, D.P., Wilson, D., Zaba B.). (2012)
PLoS Medicine, 9(7):e1001259

 

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of needle-syringe programs in Australia.
Kwon J.A., Anderson J., Kerr C.C., Thein H.H., Zhang L., Iversen J., Dore G.J., Kaldor J.M., Law M.G., Maher L., Wilson D. (2012) [Appendix]
AIDS 26(17):2201-10 

 

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Principles of Good HIV Epidemiology Modelling For Public Health Decision-Making in All Modes of Prevention and Evaluation
Delva, W., Wilson, D.P., Abu-Raddad, L., Gorgens, M., Wilson, D., Hallett, T.B., Welte, A. (2012)
PLoS Medicine, 9(7):e1001239

 

Expected epidemiological impacts of introducing an HIV vaccine in Thailand: a model-based analysis
Schneider, K., Kerr, C.C., Hoare, A., Wilson, D.P. (2011)
Vaccine, 29:6086-6091

 

Economic evaluation of monitoring virologic responses to antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings
Schneider, K., Puthanakit, T., Kerr, S., Law, M.G., Cooper, D.A., Donovan, B., Phanuphak, N., Sirisanthana, V., Ananworanich, J., Ohata, J., Wilson, D.P. (2011)
AIDS, 25:1143-1151

An HIV epidemic is ready to emerge in the Philippines
Farr, A.C., Wilson, D.P. (2010)
Journal of the International AIDS Society, 13:16

What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?
Gray, R.T., Heymer, K.J., Hoare, A., Kwon, J.A., Thein, H.H., Lote, N., Siba, P., Saramony, S., Saphonn, V., Worth, H., Kaldor, J.M., Wilson, D.P. (2009)
Current HIV Research, 7:656-665

 

Cost-effectiveness of adult circumcision for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men in a resource-rich setting
Anderson, J.S., Wilson, D.P., Templeton, D.J., Grulich, A.E., Carter, R., Kaldor, J.M. (2009)
Journal of Infectious Disease, 200:1803-1812

 

The impact of needle and syringe programs on HIV and HCV transmissions in injecting drug users in Australia: a model-based analysis
Kwon, J.A., Iversen, J., Maher, L., Law, M.G., Wilson, D.P. (2009)
J AIDS, 51(4):462-469

Relation between HIV viral load and infectiousness? A model-based analysis
Wilson, D.P., Law, M.G., Grulich, A.E., Cooper, D.A., Kaldor, J.M. (2008)
The Lancet, 372:314-20

 

The paradoxical effects of using antiretroviral-based microbicides to control HIV epidemics
Wilson, D.P., Coplan, P.M., Wainberg, M.A., Blower, S.M. (2008)
PNAS, 105(28):9835-40

 

Mathematical models and health economic aspects of microbicides
Wilson, D.P., Coplan, P.M. (2008)
Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS, 3:587-592

 

How far will we need to go to reach HIV-infected people in rural South Africa?
Wilson, D.P., Blower, S.M. (2007)
BMC Medicine, 5(1), 16

Allocating Antiretrovirals in South Africa: Using Modeling to Determine Treatment Equity
Wilson, D.P., Blower, S.M. (2005)
PLoS Medicine, 2(6):563-564

 

Designing Equitable Antiretroviral Allocation Strategies in Resource-Constrained Countries
Wilson, D.P., Blower, S.M. (2005)
PLoS Medicine, 2(2):132-141

Optima Technical Reports

2023

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries: Findings from Optima HIV modeling analyses across 12 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

National Teams, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

Regional HIV EECA 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Albania

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

ALB HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Armenia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

ARM HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Azerbaijan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

AZE HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Belarus

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

BLR HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Georgia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Kazakhstan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

KAZ HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Kosovo

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

KOS HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Kyrgyzstan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

KGZ HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Moldova

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

MDA HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Serbia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

SRB HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Tajikistan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

TJK HIV 2023

 

Allocation of HIV Resources towards Maximizing the Impact of Funding in Selected Eastern European and Central Asian Countries - Uzbekistan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2023)

UZB HIV 2023

 

2020

Improving Allocative Efficiency of the HIV Response in Kenya: A Country-Level Analysis Using the Optima HIV Model

Lukoba, B., Simiyu, J., Chege, W., Kelly, S., Minnery, M., Sithole, L., Shubber, Z. (2020)

Kenya HIV 2020

 

Ending the AIDS epidemic in Cambodia

National Team, UNAIDS, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

EECA English 2020; EECA Russian 2020

 

Improving efficiency of the HIV response in Malawi: Findings from an Optima HIV modelling analysis

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Malawi 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Armenia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Armenia 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Azerbaijan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Azerbaijan 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Belarus

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Belarus 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Georgia

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Georgia 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Kazakhstan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Kazakhstan 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Kyrgyzstan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Kyrgyzstan 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Moldova

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Moldova 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Romania

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Romania 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Tajikistan

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Tajikistan 2020

 

Resource optimization to maximize the HIV response in Ukraine

National Team, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and the Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2020)

Ukraine 2020

 

2019

Improving the Allocative Efficiency of the HIV Response Across the Care Cascade in Zimbabwe: Findings from a Modelling Analysis

Taramusi I., Sisimayi C., Benedikt C., Cheikh N., Fraser N., Shubber Z., del Mar Quiroga M., Minnery M., Martin-Hughes R., Kelly S. (2019)

2019 Zimbabwe HIV

 

Improving the allocative efficiency of Kosovo’s HIV response

Burnet Institute, Community Development Fund, National Institute of Public Health, Ministry of Health of Kosovo, Global Fund (2019)

2019 Kosovo HIV

 

2018

Optimizing Investments in the National HIV Response of Mexico

Gutierrez C., Lavadenz F., Macias C., Petravic J., Lavadenz L. (2018)

2018 Mexico HIV

 

Optimizando la Inversión del Plan de Respuesta de Colombia al VIH

Gutierrez C., Stuart R.M., Wilson D.P., Lavadenz F., Reporter I., Kerr C. (2018)

2018 Colombia HIV

 

2017

Allocating HIV Funding Efficiently in Myanmar: Analyses Using the Optima HIV Model

Optima Consortium for Decision Science, the University of Bern, the University of New South Wales, and the Burnet Institute, UNAIDS, Myanmar Ministry of Health and Sports, the World Bank Group (2017)

2017 Myanmar HIV

 

Allocative Efficiency Analysis (HIV) 2015-2030 for Karnataka & Punjab — India

Public Health Foundation of India in collaboration with National AIDS Control Organisation, National Institute of Medical Statistics, and Burnet Institute (2017)

2017 India HIV

 

Optimización de las inversiones para la respuesta al VIH en Perú

Prieto L., Montañez V., Petravic J., Reporter I., Medici A. (2017)

2017 Peru HIV

 

Optimizing Investments for a Sustainable and Efficient HIV Response in Togo

University College London, Burnet Institute, University of New South Wales (2017)

2017 Togo HIV

 

Optimización de la inversión en VIH/SIDA en Argentina

Calvo N., Lavadenz F., Reporter I., Petravic J., Pantanali C., Lavadenz, C. (2017)

2017 Argentina HIV

 

Ending AIDS in Johannesburg: An analysis of the status and scale-up towards HIV treatment and prevention targets.

Burnet Institute, Optima Consortium for Decision Science (2016)

The World Bank Group for the Gauteng Province Department of Health and South African Department of Health

 

Optimizing Investments for a Sustainable and Efficient HIV Response in Senegal: Findings from an HIV Allocative Efficiency Study

Government of Senegal, UNAIDS, the Optima Consortium for Decision Science, the University of Bern, the University of New South Wales, the Kirby Institute, and the Burnet Institute (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

HIV Investment in Cote d’Ivoire: Optimized allocation of HIV resources for a sustainable and efficient HIV response

University of Bern, University of New South Wales, Burnet Institute, and The World Bank (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing investments in Bulgaria’s HIV response

University College London, Burnet Institute, University of New South Wales (2016)

The World Bank Group, Global Fund, UINAIDS, and UNDP for the Government of Bulgaria

 

Optimizing investments in Belarus for the National HIV Response

Atroshchanka O., Fisenka A., Ilyenkova V., Đurić P., Gray R., Benedikt C., Masaki E., Obst M., Kokiashvili D., Maxim C., Sakvarelidze G., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Hamelmann C., Kerr C., Stuart R., Wilson D.P., Görgens M., Nguyen S.N., Wilson D. (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing Investments in the Kyrgyz Republic’s HIV Response

Maitieva V., Ianbukhtina L., Mambetov T., Bashmakova L., Sarybaeva M., Đurić P., Shattock A., Benedikt C., Masaki E., Obst M., Soorombaeva D., Abarbekova A., Kazizova M., Irbe S., Kokiashvili D., Mdivani N., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Scutelniciuc O., Hamelmann C., Macauley J., Stuart R., Kerr C., Wilson D.P., Patel R., Nguyen S.N., Görgens M. (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Value for money in Ukraine’s HIV response: strategic investment and improved efficiency

Kuzin I., Sharapka K., Gvozdeva E., Kerr C., Stuart R., Masaki E., Goroshko A., Benedikt C., Nizova N., Wilson D.P., Boyko J., Belli P., Görgens M., Wilson D., Manova M., Hailevich R., Tyszko J., Đurić P., Hamelmann c., Zhang S., Sakvarelidze G., Görgens M., Belli P., Doroshenko O., Fraser N., Garcia R.R., Shubber Z. (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing Investments in Georgia’s HIV Response

Asatiani A., Baliashvili D., Khonelidze I., Ruadze E., Stvilia K., Tsereteli M., Chokoshvili O., Haghparast-Bidgoli H., Grobicki L., Panovska-Griffiths J., Skordis-Worrall J., Benedikt C., Kerr C., Stuart R., Wilson D.P., Görgens M., Masaki E., Hailevic R., Manova M., Kokiashvili D., Loncar D., Sakanyan T., Zhang S., Đurić P., Hamelmann C. (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing HIV Investments in Armenia

Grigoryan S., Grigoryan T., Hovhannisyan R., Papoyan A., Kelly S., Benedikt C., Cuadros D.F., Masaki E., Obst M., Grishechkina V., Kokiashvili D., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Đurić P., Hamelmann C., Kerr C., Stuart R., Wilson D.P., Nguyen S.N., Görgens M., Heard W. (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing investments in Kazakhstan’s HIV response

Baiserkin B.S., Bokazhanova A., Ganina L.U., Kalinich N.F., Kazimova A.A., Petrenko I.I., Yelizarieva A.V., Đurić P., Shattock A., Benedikt C., Masaki E., Obst M., Farcy N., Kokiashvili D., Vinichenko T., Zhang S., Hailevich R., Manova M., Scutelniciuc O., Hamelmann C., Kerr C., Stuart R.M., Wilson D.P., Nguyen S.N., Görgens M., Wilson D., Patel R., Bortman M., Zhumadil B. (2016)

The World Bank Group

 

Science addressing drugs and HIV: State of the Art: 2nd Scientific Statement

Des Jarlais D., Bastos F., Benedikt C., Feelemyer J., Hayashi K., Kelly S., Kerr T., Lim H., Loh J., Milloy M.J.S., Shoptaw S., Williams A., Wilson D.P., Wilson D., Beg M., Hariga F. (2016)

2Nd Scientific Statement March 2016

 

Allocative and implementation efficiency in HIV prevention and treatment for people who inject drugs

Wilson D., Benedikt C., Kelly S., Wilson D.P. (2016)

Efficiency In HIV Harm Reduction For PWID

 

Optimizing Investments in the National HIV Responses of Indonesia and Thailand: a Report for World Health Organization South-east Asia Regional Office

Grantham K., Reagan D., Law M., Wilson D.P. (2016)

Who Sear Indonesia Thailand Report

 

2015

A Case Study on How Allocative Efficiency Analysis Supported by Mathematical Modelling Changed HIV Investment in Sudan. From Analysis to Action

The World Bank Group (2015)

The World Bank Group

 

Optimizing Investments in Moldova’s HIV Response

University of New South Wales, Burnet Institute (2015)

The World Bank Group, Global Fund, UNAIDS, and UNDP for the Government of Moldova

 

Optimizing investments in Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s HIV response

University College London, Burnet Institute, University of New South Wales (2015)

The World Bank Group for the Government of FYR Macedonia [PDF]

 

Modelling an Optimised Investment Approach for Uzbekistan: sustainable financing of National HIV responses

Wilson D.P., Kerr C., Đurić P., Hamelmann C. (2015)

Uzbekistan Report

 

Zambia’s HIV Response: Prioritised and strategic allocation of HIV resources for impact and sustainability (findings from the HIV allocative efficiency study)

Masaki E., Fraser N., Haacker M., Obst M., Wootton R., Sunkutu R., Gorgens M., Gray R.T., Shattock A., Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P. (2015)

The World Bank Group and UNSW Australia for the Government of Zambia

 

Investing for Results: How Asia Pacific countries can invest for ending AIDS. High-level panel for AIDS Funding Landscape in Asia and the Pacific

Shattock A., Gray R., Donald B., Stuart R., Lief E., Zhang L., Wilson D. (2015)

Investing For Results 2015

 

2014

Sudan’s HIV response: Value for money in a low-level HIV epidemic; Findings from the HIV allocative efficiency study

Fraser N., Benedikt C., Obst M., Masaki E., Gorgens M., Stuart R., Shattock A., Gray R.T., Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P. (2014)

The World Bank Group and UNSW Australia

 

Optimizing allocation of resources for HIV/AIDS responses: presented to the United Nations General Assembly

Wilson D.P., Stuart R., Shattock A., Gray R., Kelly S. (New York, September 2014)

JC2686 Wad2014report En

 

HIV Mathematical Modelling to Support Swaziland's Development of its HIV Investment Case

Kelly S., Shattock A., Kerr C.C., Gama T., Nhlabatsi N., Zagatti G., Harimurti P., Wilson D.P., Gorgens M. (2014)

Swaziland Report

 

HIV resource needs, availabilities and gaps across ASEAN countries

Wilson D.P., Shattock A., Gray R. (Hanoi, Vietnam; September 2014)

ASEAN, 5 Sept 2014

 

Niger’s HIV response: Targeted investments for a health future. Findings from the HIV allocative efficiency and financial sustainability study

Fraser N., Cheikh N., Haacker M., Masaki E., Karamoko D., Gorgens M., Frescura L., Konan C., Kerr C.C., Gray R.T., Shattock A., Wilson D.P. (2014)

The World Bank Group

 

Ukraine HIV Program Efficiency Study: Can Ukraine improve value for money in HIV service delivery?

Wilson D.P., Razali K., Henderson K., Maher L., Ellard J., Shattock A., Semini I., Masaki E., Gorgens M. (2014)

Ukraine HIV Program Efficiency Report Final With Cover

 

HIV Investment in Armenia: Analysis & Recommendations

Kerr C.C., Wilson D.P. (2014)

Armenia Report 2014

 

Modelling an optimized investment approach for Tajikistan

Duric P., Hammelmann C., Wilson D.P., Kerr C.C. (2014)

Tajikistan Report RuTajikistan Report En

 

Evaluation of a Decade of DFID and World Bank Supported HIV and AIDS Programmes in Vietnam from 2003 to 2012

Zhang L., Maher L., Pham D.Q., Higgs P., Anh N.D., Duc B.H. Shattock A., Hoa D.M., Wilson D.P. (2014)

The World Bank Group

 

HIV Resource Needs, Efficient Allocation and Resource Mobilization for the Republic of Belarus

Wilson D.P., Yakusik A., Kerr C.C., Avila C. (2013)

Belarus Report 2013

 

2012

Assessment of the allocation of HIV funding in Indonesia.

Gray R.T., Reyes J., Nadjib M., Harimurti P., Wilson D.P. (2012)

The World Bank Group

 

2011

The Papua New Guinea HIV Model: explaining the past, describing the present, and forecasting the future of the HIV epidemic in PNG

Gray R.T., Murray J.M., Wilson D.P., Vallely A., Kaldor J. (2011)

PNG HIV Model ReportsPNG HIV Modeling Report Technical AppendixPNG HIV Model Software Manual

 

Evaluation of the epidemiological impact of harm reduction programs on HIV in Vietnam

Wilson D.P., Loo V., Zhang L., Thein H.H., Gray R., Kwon A. (2011)

Vietnam WB 2011

 

The HIV in Indonesia Model (HIM)

Wilson D.P., Riono P., Kerr C., Kwon A., Zhang L., Kaldor J., Sutrisna A., Farid M.N., Hadi N. (2011)

HIV In Indonesia (HIM) ReportHIM Software Manual

 

Epidemiology and modeling report on HIV/AIDS in the Philippines

Farr A.C., Wilson D.P. (2010)

Philippines Report

 

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia (prepared for AusAID)

Wilson D.P., Gray R., Heymer K.J., Hoare A., Kwon J., Thein H.H., Worth H., Kaldor J. (2009)

SEA HIV Epidemic 2009

 

Mathematical models to investigate recent trends in HIV notifications among men who have sex with men in Australia

Wilson D.P., Hoare A., Regan D.G., Wand H., Law M.G. (2008)

Final+NCHECR+Modelling+Report

Projects

201006 COVASIM Websitepageheader Teal
COVID-19 modelling (Covasim)
PROJECT Arrow Icon
Holding Image
Hepatitis B Modelling
PROJECT Arrow Icon
Screen Shot 2016 09 02 At 4.48.10 PM
HMHB - Health Services for Postnatal and Infancy Care
PROJECT Arrow Icon
Optimise Logo On White 11.29.18 Am
The Optimise Study: Optimising Isolation, Quarantine and Distancing for COVID-19
PROJECT Arrow Icon
National Cancer Institute Ci8t6zedbzw Unsplash
Optima HIV Modelling
PROJECT Arrow Icon
Myanmar Malaria IMG 8144
Optima Malaria Modelling
PROJECT Arrow Icon
Holding Image
Optima Nutrition Modelling
PROJECT Arrow Icon
Dreamstime Xxl 209238243
Optima Tuberculosis (TB) Modelling
PROJECT Arrow Icon
Holding Image
Using mathematical models to generate evidence to support Australia’s COVID-19 responses and prepare for future pandemics
PROJECT Arrow Icon