Nick is an Econometrician and winner of the 2014 and 2015 Jim and Margaret Beever Fellowships. Since completing his mathematics PhD in 2012, he has built and used numerous mathematical, economic and statistical models to inform government policies, including:
Econometric and regression models of the heroin and methamphetamine markets in Melbourne, using data from cohort studies and the Victoria Police Forensic Services database—with submissions to the 2014 Victorian Parliamentary Inquiry into the Supply and Use of Methamphetamine and 2015 Ice Taskforce;
Markov models of the behavioural responses of people who inject drugs to changes in drug market economics;
Deterministic transmission models of hepatitis B virus, HIV and other sexually transmitted infections in prisons to determine the cost-benefits of condom availability;
Cost-effectiveness models of hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment, including quantifying the impact of treating chronic HCV on the overall burden of liver disease, determining the cost-effectiveness of treating people who inject drugs with new therapies, determining the cost-effectiveness of reaching World Health Organisation elimination targets, and investigating the benefits of HCV vaccines;
A stochastic agent-based model ‘SimDrink’, currently being used to conduct alcohol policy experiments on populations of young heavy drinkers; and
Components of an allocative efficiency model as part of the ‘OptimaTB’ collaboration, designed to improve tuberculosis outcomes by optimising government funding allocation across preventative and treatment programs.
- 2012: PhD in Mathematics, The University of Melbourne
- 2008: BSc (Hons), The University of Melbourne
Decision science using Optima
HCV Elimination Modelling
Hepatitis C brief reports
Modelling hepatitis C virus elimination and control policies in Myanmar
Optimal community-delivered malaria elimination models for the Greater Mekong Sub-region
SimDrink: Using simulation modelling to perform alcohol policy experiments
The International Collaboration on Hepatitis C Elimination in HIV Cohorts (InCHEHC)
The Optimise Study: Optimising Isolation, Quarantine and Distancing for COVID-19
Tools for the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (Kenya, Myanmar and Senegal)
- Victoria’s response to a resurgence of COVID-19 has averted 9,000-37,000 cases in July 2020.
Saul A, Scott N, Crabb BS, Majumdar SS, Coghlan B, Hellard ME
MJA. 2020 Aug; Preprint Epub ahead of print
- Cost-effectiveness of strategies to improve HCV screening, linkage-to-care and treatment in remand prison settings in England.
Mohamed Z, Scott N, Al-Kurdi D, Selvapatt N, Thursz MR, Lemoine M, Brown AS, Nayagam S.
Liver Int. 2020 Aug; Epub ahead of print
- A model of the economic benefits of global hepatitis C elimination: an investment case.
Scott N, Kuschel C, Pedrana A, Schroeder S, Howell J, Thompson A, Wilson DP, Hellard M
Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2020 Jul; Epub ahead of print
- Global hepatitis C elimination: an investment framework.
Pedrana A, Howell J, Scott N, Schroeder S, Kuschel C, Lazarus JV, Atun R, Baptista-Leite R, 't Hoen E, Hutchinson SJ, Aufegger L, Peck R, Sohn AH, Swan T, Thursz M, Lesi O, Sharma M, Thwaites J, Wilson DP, Hellard M
Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2020 Jul; Epub ahead of print
- The potential impact of a gel-based point-of-sex intervention in reducing gonorrhoea incidence among gay and bisexual men: a modelling study.
Traeger MW, Tidhar T, Holt M, Williams C, Wright EJ, Stoové MA, Scott N, Hellard ME
Sex Transm Dis. 2020 Jul; Epub ahead of print
- Use of controlled temperature chain and compact prefilled auto-disable devices to reach 2030 hepatitis B birth dose vaccination targets in LMICs: a modelling and cost-optimisation study.
Seaman CP, Morgan C, Howell J, Xiao Y, Spearman CW, Sonderup M, Lesi O, Andersson MI, Hellard ME, Scott N
Lancet Glob Health. 2020 Jul; 8(7):e931-e941
- Striving for hepatitis C elimination - the role of a vaccine.
Hellard M, Drummer H, Scott N
Clin Infect Dis. 2020 May; Epub ahead of print
- Enhancing the hepatitis B care cascade in Australia: a cost-effectiveness model.
Xiao Y, Howell J, van Gemert C, Thompson AJ, Seaman CP, McCulloch K, Scott N, Hellard ME
J Viral Hepat. 2020 May; 27(5):526-536
- Measuring hepatitis C virus elimination as a public health threat:beyond global targets.
van Santen DK, Sacks-Davis R, Doyle JS, Scott N, Prins M, Hellard M
J Viral Hepat. 2020 Mar; Epub ahead of print
- Australia needs to increase testing to achieve hepatitis C elimination.
Scott N, Sacks-Davis R, Wade AJ, Stoové M, Pedrana A, Doyle JS, Thompson AJ, Wilson DP, Hellard ME
Med J Aust. 2020 Mar; Epub ahead of print
- Motivations for crystal methamphetamine-opioid co-injection/co-use amongst community-recruited people who inject drugs: a qualitative study.
Palmer A, Scott N, Dietze P, Higgs P
Harm Reduct J. 2020 Feb; 17(1):14
- Blood donation amongst people who inject drugs in Australia: research supporting policy change.
Quinn B, Pearson R, Cutts J, Seed C, Scott N, Hoad V, Dietze P, Wilson D, Maher L, Thompson A, Farrell M, Harrod M, Caris S, Pink J, Kotsiou G, Hellard M
Vox Sang. 2020 Feb; 115(3):162-70
- Upscaling prevention, testing and treatment to control hepatitis C as a public health threat in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: A cost-effectiveness model.
Scott N, Mohamed Z, Rwegasha J, Mbwambo J, Lemoine M, Hellard M
Int J Drug Policy. 2020 Feb; Epub ahead of print:102634
- A cost-effectiveness analysis of primary versus hospital-based specialist care for direct acting antiviral hepatitis C treatment.
Palmer AY, Wade AJ, Draper B, Howell J, Doyle JS, Petrie D, Thompson AJ, Wilson DP, Hellard ME, Scott N
Int J Drug Policy. 2020 Feb; 76:102633
- Cost-effectiveness of transplanting lungs and kidneys from donors with potential hepatitis C exposure or infection.
Scott N, Snell G, Westall G, Pilcher D, Raggatt M, Walker RG, Hellard M, Peleg AY, Doyle J
Sci Rep. 2020 Jan; 10(1):1459
- Modelling the impact of migrants on the success of the HIV care and treatment program in Botswana.
Marukutira T, Scott N, Kelly SL, Birungi C, Makhema JM, Crowe S, Stoove M, Hellard M
PLoS One. 2020 Jan; 15(1):e0226422
- Treading lightly: Finding the best way to use public health surveillance of hepatitis C diagnoses to increase access to cure.
Stoové M, Wallace J, Higgs P, Pedrana A, Goutzamanis S, Latham N, Scott N, Treloar C, Crawford S, Doyle J, Hellard M
Int J Drug Policy. 2020 Jan; 75:102596
- Outcomes of treatment for hepatitis C in primary care compared to hospital-based care: a randomised controlled trial in people who inject drugs.
Wade AJ, Doyle JS, Gane E, Stedman C, Draper B, Iser D, Roberts SK, Kemp W, Petrie D, Scott N, Higgs P, Agius PA, Roney J, Stothers L, Thompson AJ, Hellard ME
Clin Infect Dis. 2020 Jan; 70(9):1900-6(9):1900-1906
- Profiling Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission and the resulting disease burden in the five highest tuberculosis burden countries.
Ragonnet R, Trauer JM, Geard N, Scott N, McBryde ES
BMC Med. 2019 Nov; 17(1):208
- The case for a universal hepatitis C vaccine to achieve hepatitis C elimination.
Scott N, Wilson DP, Thompson AJ, Barnes E, El-Sayed M, Benzaken AS, Drummer HE, Hellard ME
BMC Med. 2019 Sep; 17(1):175
- Innovative strategies for the elimination of viral hepatitis at a national level: a country case series.
Schroeder ES, Pedrana A, Scott N, Wilson D, Kuschel C, Aufegger L, Atun R, Baptista-Leite R, Butsashvili M, El-Sayed M, Getahun A, Hamid S, Hammad R, 't Hoen E, Hutchinson SJ, Lazarus JV, Lesi O, Li W, Mohamed RB, Olafsson S, Peck R, Sohn AH, Sonderup M, Spearman CW, Swan T, Thursz M, Walker T, Hellard M, Howell J
Liver Int. 2019 Aug; Epub ahead of print
- Additional resource needs for viral hepatitis elimination through universal health coverage: projections in 67 low-income and middle-income countries, 2016-30.
Tordrup D, Hutin Y, Stenberg K, Lauer JA, Hutton DW, Toy M, Scott N, Bulterys M, Ball A, Hirnschall G
Lancet Glob Health. 2019 Jul; 7(9):e1180-e1188
- Treatment access is only the first step to hepatitis C elimination: experience of universal anti-viral treatment access in Australia.
Doyle JS, Scott N, Sacks-Davis R, Pedrana AE, Thompson AJ, Hellard ME; Eliminate Hepatitis C Partnership
Aliment Pharmacol Ther. 2019 Mar; 49(9):1223-1229
- Estimating the syphilis epidemic among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Australia following changes in HIV care and prevention.
Wilkinson A, Scott N, Tidhar T, Luong P, El-Hayek C , Wilson D, Fairley C, Zhang L, Leslie D , Roth N , Tee BK , Hellard M , Stoové M
Sex Health. 2019 Feb; 16(3):254-262
- Outcomes of treatment for hepatitis C in prisoners using a nurse-led, state-wide model of care.
Papaluca T, McDonald L, Craigie A, Gibson A, Desmond P, Wong D, Winter R, Scott N, Howell J, Doyle J, Pedrana A, Lloyd A, Stoové M, Hellard M, Iser D, Thompson A
J Hepatol. 2019 Jan; 70(5):839-846
- Cost-effectiveness of 3 months of weekly rifapentine and isoniazid compared with other standard treatment regimens for latent tuberculosis infection: a decision analysis study.
Doan TN, Fox GJ, Meehan MT, Scott N, Ragonnet R, Viney K, Trauer JM, McBryde ES
J Antimicrob Chemother. 2019 Jan; 74(1):218-227
- Analysis of time of drug use according to needle and syringe program operating hours in Melbourne, Australia: Effects on individual-level needle and syringe coverage.
O'Keefe D, Aitken C, Scott N, Dietze P
Drug Alcohol Depend. 2018 Aug; 191:259-265
- Implications of population-level immunity for the emergence of artemisinin-resistant malaria: a mathematical model.
Scott N, Ataide R, Wilson DP, Hellard M, Price RN, Simpson JA, Fowkes FJI
Malar J. 2018 Aug; 17(1):279
- Eliminating hepatitis C: the importance of frequent testing of people who inject drugs in high prevalence settings.
Scott N, Sacks-Davis R, Pedrana A, Doyle J, Thompson A, Hellard M
J Viral Hepat. 2018 Jul; 25(12):1472-1480
- Determining the effective dose of street-level heroin: A new way to consider fluctuations in heroin purity, mass and potential contribution to overdose.
Stam NC, Gerostamoulos D, Gerstner-Stevens J, Scott N, Smith K, Drummer OH, Pilgrim JL
Forensic Sci Int. 2018 Jul; 290:219-226
- Hepatitis C virus notification rates in Australia are highest in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas.
Hainsworth SW, Dietze PM, Wilson DP, Sutton B, Hellard ME, Scott N
PLoS One. 2018 Jun; 13(6):e0198336
- Cost-effectiveness of the controlled temperature chain for the hepatitis B virus birth dose vaccine in various global settings: a modelling study.
Scott N, Palmer A, Morgan C, Lesi O, Spearman CW, Sonderup M, Hellard M
Lancet Glob Health. 2018 Jun; 6(6):e659-e667
- Eliminating HIV/HCV co-infection in gay and bisexual men: is it achievable through scaling up treatment?
Sacks-Davis R, Pedrana AE, Scott N, Doyle JS, Hellard ME
Expert Rev Anti Infect Ther. 2018 May; 16(5):411-422
- Aiming for elimination: outcomes of a consultation pathway supporting regional general practitioners to prescribe direct acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C.
Wade AJ, McCormack A, Roder C, McDonald K, Davies M, Scott N, Wardrop M, Athan E, Hellard ME
J Viral Hepat. 2018 Apr; 25(9):1089-1098
- Heterogeneity in hepatitis C treatment prescribing and uptake in Australia: a geospatial analysis of a year of unrestricted treatment access.
Scott N, Hainsworth SW, Sacks-Davis R, Pedrana A, Doyle J, Wade A, Hellard M
J Virus Erad. 2018 Apr; 4(2):108-114
- Optima Nutrition: an allocative efficiency tool to reduce childhood stunting by better targeting of nutrition-related interventions.
Pearson R, Killedar M, Petravic J, Kakietek JJ, Scott N, Grantham KL, Stuart RM, Kedziora DJ, Kerr CC, Skordis-Worrall J, Shekhar M, Wilson DP
BMC Public Health. 2018 Mar; 18(1):384
- Achieving 90-90-90 HIV targets will not be enough to achieve the HIV incidence reduction target in Australia.
Scott N, Stoové M, Kelly SL, Wilson DP, Hellard ME
Clin Infect Dis. 2018 Mar; 66(7):1019-1023
- Achieving hepatitis C elimination in Europe - to treatment scale up and beyond.
Hellard M, Scott N, Sacks Davis R, Pedrana A
J Hepatol. 2018 Feb; 68(3):383-385
- Modelling the elimination of hepatitis C as a public health threat in Iceland: a goal attainable by 2020.
Scott N, Ólafsson S, Gottfreðsson M, Tyrfingsson T, Rúnarsdóttir V, Hansdottir I, Benitez Hernandez U, Sigmundsdóttir G, Hellard M
J Hepatol. 2018 Feb; 68(5):932-939
- Eliminating hepatitis C virus as a public health threat among HIV-positive men who have sex with men: a multi-modelling approach to understand differences in sexual risk behaviour.
Scott N, Stoové M, Wilson DP, Keiser O, El-Hayek C, Doyle J, Hellard M
J Int AIDS Soc. 2018 Jan; 21(1):e25059
- Assessing individual-level needle and syringe coverage parameters and the measurement of coverage in Melbourne, Australia: methods and impacts.
O'Keefe D, Scott N, Aitken C, Dietze P
J Public Health. 2018 Jan; 40(3):e336-e342
- Maximizing the impact of malaria funding through allocative efficiency: using the right interventions in the right locations.
Scott N, Hussain SA, Martin-Hughes R, Fowkes FJI, Kerr CC, Pearson R, Kedziora DJ, Killedar M, Stuart RM, Wilson DP
Malar J. 2017 Sep; 16(1):368
- Reaching hepatitis C virus elimination targets requires health system interventions to enhance the care cascade.
Scott N, Doyle JS, Wilson DP, Wade A, Howell J, Pedrana A, Thompson A, Hellard ME
Int J Drug Policy. 2017 Sep; 47:107-116
- Using simulation modelling to examine the impact of venue lockout and last-drink policies on drinking-related harms and costs to licensees.
Scott N, Livingston M, Reporter I, Dietze P
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2017 Jun; 41(3):243-247
- Longitudinal changes in personal wellbeing in a cohort of people who inject drugs.
Scott N, Carrotte ER, Higgs P, Stoové MA, Aitken CK, Dietze PM
PLoS One. 2017 May; 12(5):e0178474
- Longitudinal analysis of change in individual-level needle and syringe coverage amongst a cohort of people who inject drugs in Melbourne, Australia.
O'Keefe D, Scott N, Aitken C, Dietze P
Drug Alcohol Depend. 2017 Apr; 176:7-13
- Treatment scale-up to achieve global HCV incidence and mortality elimination targets: a cost-effectiveness model.
Scott N, McBryde ES, Thompson A, Doyle JS, Hellard ME
Gut. 2017 Mar; 66(8):1507-1515
- Targeted direct-acting antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis C: a financial reality or an obstacle to elimination?
Hellard M, Pedrana A, Scott N
J Hepatol. 2017 Feb; 66(2):270-272
- Limited provision of diagnostic services to Victorians living with hepatitis C antibodies, 2001-2012: a multi-level modelling analysis.
Snow K, Scott N, Clothier HJ, MacLachlan JH, Cowie B
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2017 Feb; 41(2):193-198
- Longitudinal changes in psychological distress in a cohort of people who inject drugs in Melbourne, Australia.
Scott N, Carrotte ER, Higgs P, Cogger S, Stoové MA, Aitken CK, Dietze PM
Drug and Alcohol Dependence. 2016 Aug; 168:140-146
- Individual-level needle and syringe coverage in Melbourne, Australia: a longitudinal, descriptive analysis.
O'Keefe D, Scott N, Aitken C, Dietze P
BMC Health Serv Res. 2016 Aug; 16(1):411
- The Potential Impact of a Hepatitis C Vaccine for People Who Inject Drugs: Is a Vaccine Needed in the Age of Direct-Acting Antivirals?
Stone J, Martin NK, Hickman M, Hellard M, Scott N, McBryde E, Drummer H, Vickerman P
PLoS One. 2016 May; 11(5):e0156213
- The introduction of CCTV and associated changes
in heroin purchase and injection settings in Footscray,
Scott N, Higgs P, Caulkins JP, Aitken C, Cogger S, Dietze P
J Exp Criminol. 2016 Apr; 12(2):265-275
- How is methamphetamine typically purchased
and used in Melbourne, Australia? Reports from a
cohort of people who inject drugs.
Scott N, Caulkins JP, Dietze P
Addiction Research and Theory. 2016 Mar; 24(5):416-425
- The effects of extended public transport operating hours and venue lockout policies on drinking-related harms in Melbourne, Australia: Results from SimDrink, an agent-based simulation model.
Scott N, Hart A, Wilson J, Livingston M, Moore D, Dietze P
Int J Drug Policy. 2016 Feb; 32:44-49
- Modelling hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs: assumptions, limitations and future challenges.
Scott N, Hellard M, McBryde E
Virulence. 2016 Feb; 7(2):201-208
- Cost-effectiveness of treating chronic hepatitis C virus with direct-acting antivirals in people who inject drugs in Australia.
Scott N, Iser D, Thompson A, Doyle J, Hellard M
J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2016 Feb; 31(4):872-882
- SimDrink: An agent-based NetLogo model of young, heavy drinkers for conducting alcohol policy experiments.
Scott N, Livingston M, Hart A, Wilson J, Moore D, Dietze P
JASS. 2016 Jan; 19(1):10
- Modelling the Impact of Condom Distribution on the Incidence and Prevalence of Sexually Transmitted Infections in an Adult Male Prison System.
Scott N, McBryde E, Kirwan A, Stoové M
PLoS One. 2015 Dec; 10(12):e0144869
- The role of a hepatitis C virus vaccine: modelling the benefits alongside direct-acting antiviral treatments.
Scott N, McBryde E, Vickerman P, Martin NK, Stone J, Drummer H, Hellard M
BMC Med. 2015 Aug; 13:198
- The changing landscape of hepatitis C treatment-not 'can we cure?' but 'who should we cure first?' Is this an ethical approach?
Hellard M, Scott N
Addiction. 2015 Jun; 110(6):984-985
- How patterns of injecting drug use evolve in a cohort of people who inject drugs.
Scott N, Caulkins JP, Ritter A, Dietze P
Trend Issues Crime Crim Justice. 2015 Jun; 502:1-20
- Understanding and describing Australian illicit drug markets: Drug price variations and associated changes in a cohort of people who inject drugs.
Scott N, Caulkins JP, Dietze P, Ritter A
National Drug Law Enforcement Research Fund. 2015 May; Monograph 58
- Patterns of drug preference and use among people who inject drugs
in Melbourne, Australia
Scott N, Caulkins JP, Ritter A, Dietze P
Addict Res Theory. 2015 Apr; 23(6):459-468
- High-Frequency Drug Purity and Price Series as Tools for Explaining Drug Trends and Harms in Victoria, Australia.
Scott N, Caulkins JP, Ritter A, Quinn C, Dietze P
Addiction. 2015 Jan; 110(1):120-128
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