Modelling hepatitis C virus elimination and control policies in Myanmar

The availability of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments for hepatitis C (HCV) could lead to reductions in HCV-related liver disease as well as HCV transmission. The simplicity of DAA treatments is also revolutionising existing models of HCV care. HCV treatment can now be managed in primary healthcare and community settings rather than just in hospital settings, with novel point-of-care diagnostic tests.

Objective

Many countries are now developing elimination strategies, but there is little understanding of what is required to achieve these goals. Myanmar has set national HCV targets to achieve 50 per cent of people diagnosed and 50 per cent treated by 2030.

Timeline

• Alfred Ethics approval on 15 June 2018
• Myanmar IRB submission on 21 Mar 2019
• Alfred Ethics approval on amendment on 7 May 2019
• Myanmar IRB review meeting on 27 August 2019
• Myanmar IRB resubmission of amendments on 1 November 2019
• Myanmar IRB approval on 27 December 2019.

Approach

This project used mathematical modelling to estimate the national treatment scale-up required to reach the HCV elimination targets by 2030 and to determine the expected budget impact and return on investment over time of the optimal screening and treatment strategy.