Optimising behaviour to defeat COVID-19
Although there are promising signs globally that an effective COVID-19 vaccine will be developed, Professor Margaret Hellard AM has spent much of 2020 focusing on another weapon against the virus.
“In my view, the ‘silver bullet’ of a vaccine or a cure won’t be here for 12 to 18 months for the majority of people. Our one weapon is what I call ‘the vaccine of human behaviour’,” she said.
"In the next 12 months, we’re not going to get a vaccine or ‘silver bullet’ cure for COVID-19. The solution to how we manage this has to come from within the community.”
Professor Margaret Hellard AM
Professor Margaret Hellard AM.
Professor Hellard and Professor Katherine Gibney from Doherty Institute are Principal Investigators and Co-Chairs of the highly innovative Optimise Study. This is a partnership between Burnet Institute and Doherty Institute, in collaboration with The University of Melbourne, Swinburne University of Technology, Monash University, La Trobe University, the Victorian Government, Macquarie Group Foundation, the Centre for Ethnicity and Health, and the Health Issues Centre.
Recruitment has started, with study participants coming from a wide range of cultural and socio-economic backgrounds (healthcare and aged care workers, regional, metro, CALD community).
The research will try to answer key questions about how social, economic and structural factors affect compliance with restrictions, how social mixing patterns contribute to transmission, and the effectiveness of key messaging.
That information will be used to inform policy and practice on a national level, and to build and analyse mathematical models on the impact of isolation, quarantine and physical distancing measures.
Crunching the numbers has already led to some major discoveries.
Modelling released in August 2020 showed that Victoria’s Stage 3 lockdown restrictions in July prevented around 19,000 new infections that month. The same modelling indicated that the reproduction ratio (the R number) – the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to – fell from 1.75 to 1.6.
But the most vital element of the study is its collaborative, circular approach to engage the community. Professor Hellard said her extensive work on eliminating viral hepatitis in Australia – which draws upon a deep understanding of people’s social networks, contacts and how they interact – has informed her work on COVID-19.
“We know that ‘optimising’ the effectiveness of public health interventions will be critical to reduce transmission and restore society,” she said.
An example of the schedule of qualitative interviews and online diaries filled in by Optimise participants
Aligning with community-driven organisations such as the Health Issues Centre, and the Centre for Culture, Ethnicity and Health will allow for key public health messages to be defined and refined via a co-design process.
“That’s crucial,” Professor Hellard said, “because people do not engage with a ‘top down’ approach where they are told what to do without being consulted.”
When it comes to understanding compliance with COVID-safe behaviour – such as self-isolating at home after a COVID-19 test – Professor Hellard said there are three elements to behaviour change to consider:
- Do people know what they’re being asked to do?
- Do they agree and accept the need to change their behaviour?
- Is it feasible to change?
The aim is to produce messaging that isn’t heterogenous and factors in all the different ways communication might break down.
“Two people who speak English can hear the same piece of information but interpret it quite differently. As soon as you bring in variants like language, culture, age differences, the messaging has to change. The nature of how I speak to an 80-year-old is different to how I would speak to someone in their 20s,” she said.
As countries grapple with second and third waves of this highly communicable virus, it’s crucial that communities understand the key role they play in suppressing transmission, until an effective vaccine is rolled out.
Initially, public health responses to COVID-19 were often made quickly and without behavioural data to guide effective messaging to communities and guide behaviour change. As Victoria emerges from the grip of a Stage 4 lockdown, finding a new weapon to suppress virus transmission rates and keep them low is not just a health issue, but an economic, social and mental health one.
As the race to discover an effective vaccine continues at pace, science is also helping refine the best weapon currently available: people’s behaviour.
Funding support
The Optimise Study receives funding support from the Victorian Government through the COVID-19 Victorian Consortium Clinical/Public Health Pillar, the Macquarie Group, and Burnet Institute.
Thanks to the Macquarie Group Foundation
The Optimise Study has been made possible by the generous support of the Macquarie Group Foundation. Foundation Global Head, Lisa George, said the decision to support Burnet’s research into optimising interventions that restrict the spread of COVID-19 was in recognition of the exceptional challenges that the disease is presenting now and will continue to present in the medium term.
“The COVID-19 crisis is placing sudden and significant human and economic stress on communities around the world,” she said.
“Burnet Institute has been at the forefront of infectious disease research and public health for over 30 years, so we’re pleased to support the Optimise Study which aims to assist community organisations in restoring economic activity and recreational activities while keeping infection rates low.
“At Macquarie we’re focused on empowering people to innovate and invest for a better future and we’re confident the results of this study will support vulnerable communities both in Australia and abroad.”
