Modelling and Biostatistics
Modelling is critical for translating data into decision-making evidence. Our modelling guides effective and cost-effective responses to infectious diseases and global health problems.
Group Heads
About
Our dynamic, interdisciplinary team uses modelling to guide practical, cost-effective responses to infectious diseases and global health problems. We’re at the forefront of modelling across areas including:
- COVID-19 and pandemic preparedness
- hepatitis C
- hepatitis B
- HIV
- tuberculosis
- malaria
- nutrition
- maternal, newborn and child health
- adolescent health
- vaccines, health systems and service delivery platforms.
Our methodological approaches are adapted to the data available and key policy questions being addressed, and include a variety of:
- deterministic and stochastic models
- population-level and agent-based models
- compartmental and network models
- costing studies
- cost-effectiveness analyses
- cost-benefit and return on investment analyses
- resource optimisation analyses
- analyses of large datasets using statistical and machine learning approaches.
Listen now
Learn more about our modelling work in the How Science Matters podcast.
Current projects
View 8 moreUsing mathematical models to generate evidence to support Australia’s COVID-19 responses and prepare for future pandemics
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that effective public health responses save lives and reduce socio-economic damage. Modelling has played a critical role in public health decision-making by quantifying the risks and benefits of different policy responses. Burnet Health Modeller Dominic Delport's PhD will utilise mathematical modelling to generate evidence to support public health decision-making during outbreaks and prepare for future pandemics.
Hepatitis B modelling
We use mathematical and economic models to inform global efforts to achieving the elimination of hepatitis B as a public health threat.
Improving disease outbreak response time in the Pacific: 7-1-7 tool testing
We're working with partners to see how the 7-1-7 approach can help track and respond to disease outbreaks in the Pacific.
Past projects
The Optimise Study: Optimising Isolation, Quarantine and Distancing for COVID-19
This project aims to find out how Victorians are experiencing COVID-19 and responding to the measures introduced to stop the spread of the virus.
Transparent risk assessment of COVID-19 quarantine (traQ study)
This study uses a mathematical model to examine the circumstances in which quarantine for COVID-19 could be reduced from 14 days without substantially increasing the risk of virus transmission.
News and features
View 2 more
Life-saving impact of global vaccine stockpiles
New Burnet research highlights the critical role of global vaccine stockpiles in preventing widespread outbreaks of deadly diseases.
Offering COVID-19 booster vaccinations alongside influenza vaccinations could reduce hospitalisations and deaths
Timing your COVID-19 booster with your annual flu vaccination may be a convenient and effective way to protect yourself against both viruses.
Prison needle programs could save millions
Burnet research shows how prison needle and syringe programs could save treatment costs for hepatitis C and injection-related infections.
Prison needle programs could save double what they cost – our new modelling shows how
Australia leads the world in community-based needle and syringe programs. But they are not used in Australian prisons – which are hotspots for injection-related infections.
Foreign aid cuts could mean 10 million more HIV infections by 2030 – and almost 3 million extra deaths
Written by Dr Rowan Martin-Hughes, Burnet senior research fellow; Dr Debra ten Brink, Burnet senior research officer, and Associate Professor Nick Scott, Burnet head of Modelling and Biostatistics.
NHMRC Investigator Grants
Burnet researchers Joshua Vogel and Nick Scott have received funding for projects relating to pre-eclampsia prevention and hepatitis C and HIV elimination.
Lady Potter, Burnet Emerging Leader Fellowships
Simple measures lessen hospital acquired COVID-19 infections
In a new study published in the Journal of Hospital Infections, Burnet researchers found simple infection control measures could save lives and reduce costs for hospitals.
Improved maternal health outcomes in Burnet modelling for Gates Foundation
Why Victoria’s public health restrictions weren’t in vain
Lockdowns and other public health restrictions made for difficult times in Melbourne during 2020 and 2021. But the sacrifices we made saved thousands of lives, writes Burnet Institute Deputy Director, Professor Margaret Hellard AM.
Featured publications
COVID-19 epidemic modelling for policy decision support in Victoria, Australia 2020–2021
BMC Public Health
Nick Scott et al
A global investment case for hepatitis B elimination: a modelling study
˜The œLancet. Gastroenterology & hepatology
Chris Seaman et al
A model of the economic benefits of global hepatitis C elimination: an investment case
˜The œLancet. Gastroenterology & hepatology
Nick Scott et al
Optimising HIV spending in 12 eastern European and central Asian countries: a modelling study
The Lancet HIV
Debra ten Brink et al
Health and economic benefits of achieving contraceptive and maternal health targets in Small Island Developing States in the Pacific and Caribbean
BMJ Global Health
Sherrie L. Kelly et al
Resources
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Cost-effectiveness of a novel syphilis test: full input parameters, and sensitivity analyses
This report includes modelling about the cost-effectiveness of a new syphilis test self-test.
Cost-effectiveness of a novel syphilis test: full input parameters, and sensitivity analyses [PDF 282.8 kB] -
Optima model website
Home to the Optima HIV, TB, Nutrition and malaria models and background documents.
Group contacts
Associate Professor Nick Scott
Head, Modelling and Biostatistics
Group members
Associate Professor Nick Scott
Head, Modelling and Biostatistics
Dr Rachel Sacks-Davis
Senior Research Fellow
Aimée Altermatt
Research Assistant
Alexander Thomas
PhD Candidate
Anna Roberts
Senior Project Manager
Dr Chris Seaman
Research Officer
Dr Debra ten Brink
Senior Research Officer
Dominic Delport
Health modeller
Dr Farah Houdroge
Research Officer
Fenella McAndrew
Mathematical Modeller
Kelvin Burke
Mathematical Modeller
Nisa Wulan
Health Modeller
Phillip Luong
Mathematical Modeller
Dr Romesh Abeysuriya
Senior Research Officer
Dr Rowan Martin-Hughes
Senior Research Officer
Dr Sherrie Kelly
Honorary Staff
Dr Tharindu Wickramaarachchi
Mathematical Modeller
Thomas Walsh
Health Modeller
Alina Muellenmeister
Mathematical Modeller
Dr Damian Pavlyshyn
Postdoctoral Research Officer
Dr Anna Wilkinson
Senior Research Fellow
Tim Spelman
Biostatistician
Eloisa Perez-Bennetts
Mathematical Modeller
Dr Thi Nguyen
Data Scientist
Dr Amanda Roxburgh
Senior Research Fellow
Dr Katie Heath
Senior Research Officer
