Working groups
Associate Professor Nick Scott, BSc (hons), PhD (Mathematics) is the Head of Modelling & Biostatistics at the Burnet Institute, an Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at Monash University, and an NHMRC Emerging Leader Fellow.
He leads a team of modellers who work across a number of infectious diseases and public health problems including: COVID-19; Hepatitis C; Hepatitis B; HIV; Tuberculosis; Malaria; Nutrition; Maternal, Newborn and Child health; Adolescent Health. His work aims to produce evidence to support decision and policy making, and includes epidemic and economic modelling, cost-effectiveness and return on investment analyses, resource optimisation analyses and statistical analyses.
A/Prof Scott and his team are consultants to the World Bank, Gates Foundation, Global Fund, United Nations Population Fund and the WHO, and are members of international HIV, TB, malaria and nutrition modelling consortiums.
2021 (1)
2020 (1)
Abstract<br/>Objectives: To assess the risks associated with relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related physical distancing restrictions and lockdown policies during a period of low viral transmission.<br/><br/>Design: Network-based viral transmission risks in households, schools, workplaces, and a variety of community spaces and activities were simulated in an agent-based model, Covasim.<br/><br/>Setting: The model was calibrated for a baseline scenario reflecting the epidemiological and policy environment in Victoria during March-May 2020, a period of low community viral transmission.<br/><br/>Intervention: Policy changes for easing COVID-19-related restrictions from May 2020 were simulated in the context of interventions that included testing, contact tracing (including with a smartphone app), and quarantine.<br/><br/>Main outcome measure: Increase in detected COVID-19 cases following relaxation of restrictions.<br/><br/>Results: Policy changes that facilitate contact of individuals with large numbers of unknown people (eg, opening bars, increased public transport use) were associated with the greatest risk of COVID-19 case numbers increasing; changes leading to smaller, structured gatherings with known contacts (eg, small social gatherings, opening schools) were associated with lower risks. In our model, the rise in case numbers following some policy changes was notable only two months after their implementation.<br/><br/>Conclusions: Removing several COVID-19-related restrictions within a short period of time should be undertaken with care, as the consequences may not be apparent for more than two months. Our findings support continuation of work from home policies (to reduce public transport use) and strategies that mitigate the risk associated with re-opening of social venues.
Modelling the impact of reducing control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in a low transmission setting.This project was undertaken to provide a detailed understanding of the interface between the price of drugs and the behaviour of people who inject drugs (PWID) and other drug-market changes. Specifically, three major aims were to:
Understanding and describing Australian illicit drug markets: Drug price variations and associated changes in a cohort of people who inject drugs.Background: Understanding of substitution patterns in drug using careers is limited. Between 2009 and mid-2013, the purity-adjusted price of methamphetamine declined sharply in Melbourne in absolute terms and relative to the purity-adjusted price of heroin.
Patterns of drug preference and use among people who inject drugs in Melbourne, Australia.In this study, we use Covasim to estimate the risk of Victoria experiencing a third COVID-19 epidemic wave if Stage 4 restrictions were eased on the 14th September 2020 or two weeks later on the 28th September.
Know COVID-19: Estimating risks associated with early reopening in VictoriaCOVID-19 mathematical modelling of the Victoria roadmap 2021.
Modelling the Victorian roadmap (PUBLIC HEALTH REPORT)The Medical Journal of Australia
Fenella McAndrew, Romesh Abeysuriya, Nick Scott, Fenella McAndrew, Romesh Abeysuriya, Nick Scott
The Medical Journal of Australia
Fenella McAndrew, Romesh Abeysuriya, Nick Scott, Fenella McAndrew, Romesh Abeysuriya, Nick Scott
PLoS ONE
Nick Scott
Optima HIV is an open source mathematical modelling tool to help countries respond effectively to HIV.
Optima Tuberculosis is an open-source model to aid the fight against TB. It combines epidemiological and economic algorithms to find the best ways to optimise resources and reduce disease.
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that effective public health responses save lives and reduce socio-economic damage. Modelling has played a critical role in public health decision-making by quantifying the risks and benefits of different policy responses. Burnet Health Modeller Dominic Delport's PhD will utilise mathematical modelling to generate evidence to support public health decision-making during outbreaks and prepare for future pandemics.
This project assessed the approach of providing hepatitis B tests to potential new migrants from endemic countries.
This project aims to find out how Victorians are experiencing COVID-19 and responding to the measures introduced to stop the spread of the virus.
This project addresses critical knowledge gaps in Australian and global efforts to eliminate hepatitis C as a public health threat by 2030.