Epidemiological data suggest that coffee has a dose-dependent protective effect on liver-related mortality.

To estimate the potential impact of increased per capita coffee consumption on global liver-related mortality.

Using the Global Burden of Disease 2016 dataset (adults > 15 years), we modelled the impact of increased per capita coffee consumption on liver-related mortality in 2016 for 194 countries using published risk ratios for >2 cups coffee/ day (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.42-0.69) and ≥4 cups/ day (RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.17-0.50), adjusted for confounders and tested model assumptions using sensitivity analyses.

Worldwide, there were an estimated 1,240,201 (95% CI 118 4300-1 354 410) adult liver-related deaths in 2016. Median global liver mortality rate in 2016 was 15 deaths/ 100 000 population/ year (all ages, both genders; IQR 11-21 deaths per 100 000). If all countries with per capita coffee intake ≤2 cups/ day increased to >2 cups/ day, the predicted total number of liver-related deaths would have been 630 947 in 2016 (95% CI 629 693-631 861) with 452 861 (95% CI 451 948-454 116) deaths averted (PPR 7.8 liver-related deaths/ 100 000/ year). If per capita consumption was ≥ 4 cups/ day, the predicted number of liver-related deaths in 2016 would have been 360 523 (95% CI 359 825-361 992) with 723 287 (95% CI 721 817-723 984) deaths averted (PPR 12.1 liver-related deaths/100 000/year).

Increasing per capita coffee consumption to > 2 cups per day on a population level has the potential to avert hundreds of thousands of liver-related deaths annually if the impact of coffee on liver-related mortality is confirmed in clinical trials.