Publications & Reports

Victoria’s response to a resurgence of COVID-19 has averted 9,000-37,000 cases in July 2020.

Saul A, Scott N, Crabb BS, Majumdar SS, Coghlan B, Hellard ME

Abstract

The resurgence of COVID-19 in Victoria led to multiple control measures being introduced in early July; however, the ongoing high number of daily cases has led to concern about the impact of the measures on COVID-19 transmission. We analysed daily diagnosed COVID-19 cases in Victoria, examining the effectiveness of control measures to date. We estimate that control measures have reduced the reproduction ratio from 1.75 to 1.16 and averted 9,000–37,000 infections between 2 and 30 July. Despite this reduction, there remains significant ongoing growth, with an estimated further 14% reduction in transmission required to control the epidemic.

Link to publisher’s web site

Publication

  • Journal: Medical Journal of Australia
  • Published: 04/08/2020
  • Volume: Preprint Epub ahead of print

Authors

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