Publications & Reports

Impact of Victoria's Stage 3 lockdown on COVID-19 case numbers

Saul A, Scott N, Crabb BS, Majumdar SS, Coghlan B, Hellard ME


The resurgence of COVID-19 in Victoria led to multiple control measures being introduced in early July; however, the ongoing high number of daily cases has led to concern about the impact of the measures on COVID-19 transmission. We analysed daily diagnosed COVID-19 cases in Victoria, examining the effectiveness of control measures to date. We estimate that control measures have reduced the reproduction ratio from 1.75 to 1.16 and averted 9,000–37,000 infections between 2 and 30 July. Despite this reduction, there remains significant ongoing growth, with an estimated further 14% reduction in transmission required to control the epidemic.

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